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Política·Epstein

¿Trump perdonará a Ghislaine Maxwell a finales de 2026?

Market icon
Política·Epstein

¿Trump perdonará a Ghislaine Maxwell a finales de 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Sí

7% chance
Polymarket

$510,104 Vol.

Sí

7% chance
Polymarket

$510,104 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a Ghislaine Maxwell presidential pardon by end of 2026 at just 6.5% likelihood, with "No" at 93.5%, driven by President-elect Trump's silence on the matter amid his post-election focus on cabinet nominations and transition priorities. Maxwell's 20-year sex trafficking conviction, tied to Jeffrey Epstein and upheld by the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals on September 17, remains intact with no successful appeals or new legal challenges in recent weeks. Trump has signaled pardons for January 6 defendants and others like Ross Ulbricht but shows no interest in Maxwell, whose case carries high political toxicity due to scandal associations. Absent late-breaking developments like health issues or administration shifts, traders see formidable barriers to executive clemency before inauguration in January 2025 or through 2026.

Trader consensus prices a Ghislaine Maxwell presidential pardon by end of 2026 at just 6.5% likelihood, with "No" at 93.5%, driven by President-elect Trump's silence on the matter amid his post-election focus on cabinet nominations and transition priorities. Maxwell's 20-year sex trafficking conviction, tied to Jeffrey Epstein and upheld by the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals on September 17, remains intact with no successful appeals or new legal challenges in recent weeks. Trump has signaled pardons for January 6 defendants and others like Ross Ulbricht but shows no interest in Maxwell, whose case carries high political toxicity due to scandal associations. Absent late-breaking developments like health issues or administration shifts, traders see formidable barriers to executive clemency before inauguration in January 2025 or through 2026.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a Ghislaine Maxwell presidential pardon by end of 2026 at just 6.5% likelihood, with "No" at 93.5%, driven by President-elect Trump's silence on the matter amid his post-election focus on cabinet nominations and transition priorities. Maxwell's 20-year sex trafficking conviction, tied to Jeffrey Epstein and upheld by the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals on September 17, remains intact with no successful appeals or new legal challenges in recent weeks. Trump has signaled pardons for January 6 defendants and others like Ross Ulbricht but shows no interest in Maxwell, whose case carries high political toxicity due to scandal associations. Absent late-breaking developments like health issues or administration shifts, traders see formidable barriers to executive clemency before inauguration in January 2025 or through 2026.

Trader consensus prices a Ghislaine Maxwell presidential pardon by end of 2026 at just 6.5% likelihood, with "No" at 93.5%, driven by President-elect Trump's silence on the matter amid his post-election focus on cabinet nominations and transition priorities. Maxwell's 20-year sex trafficking conviction, tied to Jeffrey Epstein and upheld by the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals on September 17, remains intact with no successful appeals or new legal challenges in recent weeks. Trump has signaled pardons for January 6 defendants and others like Ross Ulbricht but shows no interest in Maxwell, whose case carries high political toxicity due to scandal associations. Absent late-breaking developments like health issues or administration shifts, traders see formidable barriers to executive clemency before inauguration in January 2025 or through 2026.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Trump perdonará a Ghislaine Maxwell a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Concederá Trump un indulto a Ghislaine Maxwell para finales de 2026?" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 7¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 7% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Trump perdonará a Ghislaine Maxwell a finales de 2026?" ha generado $510.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 23, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Trump perdonará a Ghislaine Maxwell a finales de 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Trump perdonará a Ghislaine Maxwell a finales de 2026?" es "¿Concederá Trump un indulto a Ghislaine Maxwell para finales de 2026?" con solo 7%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Trump perdonará a Ghislaine Maxwell a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.