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Economía·Tasa De Interés

Will SOFR hit __ in April?

Market icon
Economía·Tasa De Interés

Will SOFR hit __ in April?

abr 30

abr 30

NUEVO
30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$2,678 Vol.

Polymarket

↑3,76%

$0 Vol.

46%

↑3.74%

$50 Vol.

47%

↑3.72%

$0 Vol.

49%

↑3.70%

$130 Vol.

74%

↓3,64%

$438 Vol.

97%

↓3.62%

$0 Vol.

64%

↓3.60%

$0 Vol.

50%

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.SOFR has traded steadily around 3.65% through early April 2026, with the April 1 rate at 3.65% closely mirroring the effective federal funds rate of 3.64%, amid ample bank reserves and balanced repo market liquidity following the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%. Minor fluctuations—3.63% on March 30 and 3.68% on March 31—reflect routine Treasury cash management, while the 30-day average stands at 3.65% as of April 2. Prediction market traders weigh mid-month tax payment pressures and quarterly Treasury auctions as potential volatility drivers, alongside April 10 CPI data and nonfarm payrolls releases ahead of the pivotal April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where updated projections could recalibrate rate path expectations.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.

Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volumen
$2,678
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

Resultado propuesto: Sí

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Sí

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.SOFR has traded steadily around 3.65% through early April 2026, with the April 1 rate at 3.65% closely mirroring the effective federal funds rate of 3.64%, amid ample bank reserves and balanced repo market liquidity following the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%. Minor fluctuations—3.63% on March 30 and 3.68% on March 31—reflect routine Treasury cash management, while the 30-day average stands at 3.65% as of April 2. Prediction market traders weigh mid-month tax payment pressures and quarterly Treasury auctions as potential volatility drivers, alongside April 10 CPI data and nonfarm payrolls releases ahead of the pivotal April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where updated projections could recalibrate rate path expectations.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.

Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volumen
$2,678
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

Resultado propuesto: Sí

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will SOFR hit __ in April?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 8 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "↓3.66%" con 100%, seguido de "↓3,64%" con 97%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Will SOFR hit __ in April?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 1, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Will SOFR hit __ in April?", explora los 8 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Will SOFR hit __ in April?" es "↓3.66%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "↓3,64%" con 97%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will SOFR hit __ in April?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.