Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hong Wang and Jacob Tsimerman as frontrunners for the 2026 Fields Medal, with implied probabilities around 72% and 71% respectively, reflecting their recent breakthroughs—Wang's resolution of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture and Tsimerman's proof of the André-Oort conjecture—which have dominated math community discussions and earned precursor accolades like Wang's 2025 Salem Prize. Jack Thorne trails at 47% for his advances in arithmetic Langlands using tools from Fermat's Last Theorem. The secretive International Mathematical Union selection process adds uncertainty, as past awards have featured upsets despite buzz, but high trading volume ($498k+) underscores skin-in-the-game conviction. Watch for final whispers ahead of the ICM 2026 opening ceremony in Philadelphia, July 23-30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?
¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?
$498,683 Vol.
30 jul 2026
Hong Wang
72%
Jacob Tsimerman
71%
Jack Thorne
47%
John Pardon
37%
Yu Deng
34%
Julian Sahasrabudhe
29%
Aleksandr Logunov
26%
Sam Raskin
23%
Alexander Efimov
12%
Will Sawin
10%
$498,683 Vol.
Hong Wang
$59,256 Vol.
72%
Jacob Tsimerman
$52,020 Vol.
71%
Jack Thorne
$99,435 Vol.
47%
John Pardon
$83,869 Vol.
37%
Yu Deng
$112,751 Vol.
34%
Julian Sahasrabudhe
$84,299 Vol.
29%
Aleksandr Logunov
$186 Vol.
26%
Sam Raskin
$2,447 Vol.
23%
Alexander Efimov
$519 Vol.
12%
Will Sawin
$3,902 Vol.
10%
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hong Wang and Jacob Tsimerman as frontrunners for the 2026 Fields Medal, with implied probabilities around 72% and 71% respectively, reflecting their recent breakthroughs—Wang's resolution of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture and Tsimerman's proof of the André-Oort conjecture—which have dominated math community discussions and earned precursor accolades like Wang's 2025 Salem Prize. Jack Thorne trails at 47% for his advances in arithmetic Langlands using tools from Fermat's Last Theorem. The secretive International Mathematical Union selection process adds uncertainty, as past awards have featured upsets despite buzz, but high trading volume ($498k+) underscores skin-in-the-game conviction. Watch for final whispers ahead of the ICM 2026 opening ceremony in Philadelphia, July 23-30.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
Volumen
$498,683Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hong Wang and Jacob Tsimerman as frontrunners for the 2026 Fields Medal, with implied probabilities around 72% and 71% respectively, reflecting their recent breakthroughs—Wang's resolution of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture and Tsimerman's proof of the André-Oort conjecture—which have dominated math community discussions and earned precursor accolades like Wang's 2025 Salem Prize. Jack Thorne trails at 47% for his advances in arithmetic Langlands using tools from Fermat's Last Theorem. The secretive International Mathematical Union selection process adds uncertainty, as past awards have featured upsets despite buzz, but high trading volume ($498k+) underscores skin-in-the-game conviction. Watch for final whispers ahead of the ICM 2026 opening ceremony in Philadelphia, July 23-30.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$498,683Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hong Wang and Jacob Tsimerman as frontrunners for the 2026 Fields Medal, with implied probabilities around 72% and 71% respectively, reflecting their recent breakthroughs—Wang's resolution of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture and Tsimerman's proof of the André-Oort conjecture—which have dominated math community discussions and earned precursor accolades like Wang's 2025 Salem Prize. Jack Thorne trails at 47% for his advances in arithmetic Langlands using tools from Fermat's Last Theorem. The secretive International Mathematical Union selection process adds uncertainty, as past awards have featured upsets despite buzz, but high trading volume ($498k+) underscores skin-in-the-game conviction. Watch for final whispers ahead of the ICM 2026 opening ceremony in Philadelphia, July 23-30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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