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¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?

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¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?

$369,220 Vol.

30 jul 2026
Polymarket

$369,220 Vol.

Polymarket

Hong Wang

$48,431 Vol.

70%

Jacob Tsimerman

$44,752 Vol.

63%

Yu Deng

$98,649 Vol.

56%

Jack Thorne

$94,121 Vol.

47%

Sam Raskin

$27 Vol.

44%

John Pardon

$78,776 Vol.

34%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$0 Vol.

38%

Alexander Efimov

$519 Vol.

10%

Aleksandr Logunov

$159 Vol.

25%

Will Sawin

$3,785 Vol.

31%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus for the 2026 Fields Medal hinges on recent breakthroughs by under-40 mathematicians, with Chinese prodigy Hong Wang leading buzz after co-proving the century-old three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture in 2025—a geometric measure theory milestone with implications for data processing and cryptography—earning her the Salem Prize and a permanent IHES position. Other frontrunners per math community discussions include Jacob Tsimerman (André-Oort conjecture advances), Jack Thorne (Langlands program results), John Pardon (knot theory solutions), Javier Fresán, and Sam Raskin, as profiled in VnExpress's March 2026 roundup of six prodigies. The secretive IMU committee awards 2-4 medals at ICM Philadelphia (July 23-30), despite a 1,500+ signature boycott petition over U.S. policies; precursor prizes and plenary invites signal momentum, but outcomes stay highly unpredictable.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$369,220
Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus for the 2026 Fields Medal hinges on recent breakthroughs by under-40 mathematicians, with Chinese prodigy Hong Wang leading buzz after co-proving the century-old three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture in 2025—a geometric measure theory milestone with implications for data processing and cryptography—earning her the Salem Prize and a permanent IHES position. Other frontrunners per math community discussions include Jacob Tsimerman (André-Oort conjecture advances), Jack Thorne (Langlands program results), John Pardon (knot theory solutions), Javier Fresán, and Sam Raskin, as profiled in VnExpress's March 2026 roundup of six prodigies. The secretive IMU committee awards 2-4 medals at ICM Philadelphia (July 23-30), despite a 1,500+ signature boycott petition over U.S. policies; precursor prizes and plenary invites signal momentum, but outcomes stay highly unpredictable.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$369,220
Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 10 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Hong Wang" con 70%, seguido de "Jacob Tsimerman" con 63%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 70¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 70% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" ha generado $369.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?", explora los 10 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" es "Hong Wang" con 70%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 70% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Jacob Tsimerman" con 63%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.