Name: Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?
Start: 2025-01-07T21:39:23.147178Z
End: 2025-01-27T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the countries where Trump is predicted to impose tariffs during his first week in office.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on People's Republic of China by January 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



China

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on Canada by January 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Canada

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on Mexico by January 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Mexico

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the European Union by January 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



European Union

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on Japan by January 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Japan

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the United Kingdom by January 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



United Kingdom

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week? 

On January 17, Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, which would begin on February 1 and would remain in effect until a deal is struck for the US to purchase Greenland (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897).


This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff on imports into the United States from the listed country goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended.

A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the listed country goes into effect.

Only new tariffs specifically targeting the listed country or a specific set of countries including the listed country will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S. from any country) will not count toward this market's resolution.

An increase in the rate of pre-existing general tariffs on imports into the US from the listed country will count.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.

Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for France by Feburary 1?

On January 17, Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, which would begin on February 1 and would remain in effect until a deal is struck for the US to purchase Greenland (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff on imports into the United States from one or more of the following countries — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland — goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended.

A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from one or more of the listed countries goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting one or more of the listed countries or a specific set of countries including one or more of the listed countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S. from any country) will not count toward this market's resolution.

An increase in the rate of pre-existing general tariffs on imports into the US from one or more of the listed countries will count.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.

Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?

On January 17, Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, which would begin on February 1 and would remain in effect until a deal is struck for the US to purchase Greenland (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff or tariffs on imports into the United States from all of the following countries — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland — goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended.

A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from all of the listed countries goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting the listed countries or a specific set of countries including all the listed countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S. from any country) will not count toward this market's resolution.

An increase in the rate of pre-existing general tariffs on imports into the US from all of the listed countries will count.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.

Will all of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Trump suspende la entrada a EE. UU. para más países hasta el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Obligará el tribunal a Trump a devolver los aranceles?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country named in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States” is fully removed from the list of countries subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A country will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove the country
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for that country
- Congress passes legislation lifting the restrictions for that country
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating the country is no longer subject to restrictions
- Nationals of the country resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as a country being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restriction of a specified country will suffice. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

¿Se eliminará la prohibición de viaje de Trump antes del 31 de enero?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Donald Trump visitará Iowa en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Creará Trump un dividendo arancelario antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Será Marco Rubio el primero en dejar el gabinete de Trump antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." 

If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No." 

For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


¿La Corte Suprema falla a favor de los aranceles de Trump?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Trump visitará China antes del 30 de abril?

This Market will resolve to “US Strikes Iran” if the US strikes Iran before Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Trump Announce Fed” if Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee before the US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The US will be considered to strike Iran if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this would qualify). 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source for the US striking Iran will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Donald Trump will be considered to announce a new Fed Chair nominee if Donald Trump or the Trump administration make an announcement stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for Donald Trump announcing a new Fed Chair nominee will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

If the US does not strike Iran and Donald Trump does not announce a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

¿EE. UU. ataca a Irán o Trump anuncia al nominado para la Fed primero?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court issues an official ruling in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official ruling on the case is defined as any decision on the merits of the case issued by the Supreme Court, including but not limited to a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without a decision on the merits, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Decidirá la Corte Suprema sobre los aranceles de Trump antes del 20 de febrero?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action which creates or orders the creation of a federal cap on credit card interest rates in the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A “cap on credit card interest rates” is defined as a legally binding maximum interest rate (e.g., an APR ceiling, stated as a percentage) that makes it unlawful for credit card issuers to charge above a specified rate of interest on consumer credit cards. Non-binding guidance, agency recommendations, actions that only cap fees, or other actions that do not cap interest rates/APR will not qualify.

A qualifying action must apply broadly to consumer credit card interest rates in the United States. State-level caps or actions that only apply to a narrow subset of borrowers or lenders will not qualify. Limited exceptions, however, will not disqualify an action from counting (e.g. a cap which is broadly applicable to consumer credit card interest rates in the U.S., but exempts a limited and specific set of credit card products/categories would still count).

Any legislation or executive action (including executive orders, proclamations, and memoranda) which creates or directly orders the implementation of a qualifying cap will count. Announcements, proposals, requests for study, or other actions that do not themselves create or order the creation of such a cap will not count. A qualifying action within the market’s time frame will count regardless of when the cap goes into effect or any legal or other challenges it may face after enactment.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Limitará Trump las tasas de interés de las tarjetas de crédito antes del 31 de marzo de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. 

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by Jan 31”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

¿Donald Trump no anunciará un nuevo candidato para Presidente de la Reserva Federal antes de febrero de 2026?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

¿Trump respaldará a Steve Hilton en CA-Gov para el 2 de noviembre de 2026, hora del Este?

This market will resolve according to the number of Supreme Court Justices who voted in favor of the petitioner (Donald J. Trump) in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A justice will be considered to have voted in favor of the petitioner if, according to the official Supreme Court ruling, that justice concurred in a judgment that grants some or all relief requested by the petitioner or dissented from a judgment that grants none of the relief requested against the petitioner. Further details are provided below:

A justice must participate in the case and support a position aligned with granting relief to the petitioner to qualify.

If the Supreme Court's final judgment grants some or all relief requested by the petitioner, all justices who joined the majority opinion, wrote or joined concurring opinions, or concurred in the judgment alone will count. A justice who concurred in part and dissented in part will count only if their concurrence includes a vote to grant the petitioner some relief.

If the petitioner loses in the Supreme Court’s final judgment, all justices who dissented from the judgment and whose dissent, if adopted, would have granted some or all of the relief the petitioner sought, will count.

If the Supreme Court affirms the previous ruling in part and reverses the previous ruling in part, any justice whose vote, opinion, or dissent supports any portion of the judgment that grants relief to the petitioner will count.

If no majority opinion exists but a judgment is issued, all justices who concurred in the judgment in favor of the petitioner, regardless of whether they joined the plurality, will count. Justices who concurred in the judgment against the petitioner will not count.

Unless otherwise noted in official information from the Supreme Court, unsigned per curiam opinions will represent all participating justices. If any justices issue a dissent or note non-participation, they will not count.

If an emergency order in favor of the petitioner is the final disposition of the case, all participating justices will be counted excluding dissents and noted non-participation. If an emergency order against the petitioner is the final disposition of the case, all dissenters who would have granted relief to the petitioner will count.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without decision, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest option, regardless of whether any justices issue separate opinions outside of a final judgment which express support for the petitioner.

Justices who are recused or who do not participate will not count. 

Only the final votes recorded in the Supreme Court’s official slip opinion, summary disposition, or order will count. Leaked drafts, opinions, or other information will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Fallarán 3 jueces a favor de los aranceles de Trump?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

¿Recaudará EE. UU. menos de 100 mil millones de dólares en ingresos en 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities against Venezuela between the date of market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The market will resolve based on the listed date of the report. This market may stay open until 10 days after the listed date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Trump invoca los Poderes de Guerra contra Venezuela antes del 31 de enero?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Visitará Trump Groenlandia antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States,” individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority are fully removed from the list subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

People travelling on Palestinian Authority-issued documents will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove them
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for them
- Congress passes legislation lifting their restrictions
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating they are no longer subject to restrictions
- People traveling on Palestinian Authority-issued documents resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as the restrictions being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation at large or all restrictions for individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restrictions will suffice.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

¿La nueva prohibición de viaje de Trump para los palestinos fue eliminada antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

¿Trump será sometido a un juicio político para finales de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Ataque de Estados Unidos a México antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

¿Respaldará Trump a algún candidato presidencial antes de 2027?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Atacará Estados Unidos a 7 países en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities against Iran between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The market will resolve based on the listed date of the report. This market may stay open until 10 days after the listed date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Trump invoca los poderes de guerra contra Irán antes del 31 de marzo de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

China
$64,637 Vol.
No

Canada
$65,166 Vol.
No

Mexico
$30,315 Vol.
No

European Union
$15,895 Vol.
No

Japan
$18,723 Vol.
No

United Kingdom
$6,916 Vol.
No

Contexto del Mercado

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

Reglas

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

Contexto del Mercado

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

Acerca de

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

China$64,637 Vol.No

Canada$65,166 Vol.No

Mexico$30,315 Vol.No

European Union$15,895 Vol.No

Japan$18,723 Vol.No

United Kingdom$6,916 Vol.No

Contexto del Mercado

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

Reglas

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

Contexto del Mercado

Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

Acerca de

China
$64,637 Vol.
No

Canada
$65,166 Vol.
No

Mexico
$30,315 Vol.
No

European Union
$15,895 Vol.
No

Japan
$18,723 Vol.
No

United Kingdom
$6,916 Vol.
No