Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability against a US bank failure by June 30, driven by sector stability since the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 FDIC resolution to date—with no subsequent incidents amid robust Q1 earnings, including U.S. Bancorp's 15% year-over-year EPS growth to $1.18. Stabilizing commercial real estate delinquency rates near 1.5% and lower Treasury yields easing unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities have bolstered regional bank balance sheets, contrasting 2023 stresses. The 22% Yes probability reflects tail risks from $1.5 trillion in CRE maturities through year-end, with June FOMC policy signals and Q2 call reports as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,763 Vol.
$14,763 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$14,763 Vol.
$14,763 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability against a US bank failure by June 30, driven by sector stability since the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 FDIC resolution to date—with no subsequent incidents amid robust Q1 earnings, including U.S. Bancorp's 15% year-over-year EPS growth to $1.18. Stabilizing commercial real estate delinquency rates near 1.5% and lower Treasury yields easing unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities have bolstered regional bank balance sheets, contrasting 2023 stresses. The 22% Yes probability reflects tail risks from $1.5 trillion in CRE maturities through year-end, with June FOMC policy signals and Q2 call reports as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Volumen
$14,763Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability against a US bank failure by June 30, driven by sector stability since the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 FDIC resolution to date—with no subsequent incidents amid robust Q1 earnings, including U.S. Bancorp's 15% year-over-year EPS growth to $1.18. Stabilizing commercial real estate delinquency rates near 1.5% and lower Treasury yields easing unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities have bolstered regional bank balance sheets, contrasting 2023 stresses. The 22% Yes probability reflects tail risks from $1.5 trillion in CRE maturities through year-end, with June FOMC policy signals and Q2 call reports as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volumen
$14,763Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability against a US bank failure by June 30, driven by sector stability since the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 FDIC resolution to date—with no subsequent incidents amid robust Q1 earnings, including U.S. Bancorp's 15% year-over-year EPS growth to $1.18. Stabilizing commercial real estate delinquency rates near 1.5% and lower Treasury yields easing unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities have bolstered regional bank balance sheets, contrasting 2023 stresses. The 22% Yes probability reflects tail risks from $1.5 trillion in CRE maturities through year-end, with June FOMC policy signals and Q2 call reports as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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