Christian Menefee holds a commanding 90% implied probability as the Democratic primary runoff frontrunner for Texas's 18th Congressional District, bolstered by his incumbency from winning the February special election to replace the late Sylvester Turner, superior fundraising with over $1 million raised in Q1—doubling Al Green's haul—and recent polls showing a 6-point lead (41%-35%). A May 4 debate highlighted alignments on voting rights, while pro-Menefee super PAC Protect Progress has poured $1 million into ads emphasizing his anti-MAGA record. The May 26 runoff remains competitive in this Houston battleground, where Green's veteran status and impeachment initiatives could rally longtime supporters amid high early voting turnout, though Menefee's momentum and resources dominate trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoChristian Menefee 91.1%
Al Green 9.4%
Gretchen Brown <1%
Amanda Edwards <1%
$27,383 Vol.
$27,383 Vol.
Christian Menefee
91%
Al Green
9%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Christian Menefee 91.1%
Al Green 9.4%
Gretchen Brown <1%
Amanda Edwards <1%
$27,383 Vol.
$27,383 Vol.
Christian Menefee
91%
Al Green
9%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christian Menefee holds a commanding 90% implied probability as the Democratic primary runoff frontrunner for Texas's 18th Congressional District, bolstered by his incumbency from winning the February special election to replace the late Sylvester Turner, superior fundraising with over $1 million raised in Q1—doubling Al Green's haul—and recent polls showing a 6-point lead (41%-35%). A May 4 debate highlighted alignments on voting rights, while pro-Menefee super PAC Protect Progress has poured $1 million into ads emphasizing his anti-MAGA record. The May 26 runoff remains competitive in this Houston battleground, where Green's veteran status and impeachment initiatives could rally longtime supporters amid high early voting turnout, though Menefee's momentum and resources dominate trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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