Skip to main content
icon for Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18

icon for Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18

Christian Menefee 90.6%

Al Green 9.8%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$27,264 Vol.

Christian Menefee 90.6%

Al Green 9.8%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$27,264 Vol.

Christian Menefee

$16,458 Vol.

91%

Al Green

$4,590 Vol.

10%

Gretchen Brown

$3,500 Vol.

<1%

Amanda Edwards

$2,716 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 90.6% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his recent special election victory in the district, consistent polling margins, and superior fundraising that outpaced Al Green's by 2-to-1 in Q1. Latest surveys, including a New York Times polling average showing Menefee ahead 41%-35% (+6), reflect his momentum from the March 3 primary where he edged Green, bolstered by incumbency advantages in the safely Democratic Houston-area seat reshaped by redistricting. The May 4 debate saw both align on voting rights, but Menefee's resources enable heavier ad buys targeting key voter blocs. Upsets could arise from a late Green surge among seniority-focused voters, scandal, or unexpectedly low turnout favoring the veteran challenger's base.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$27,264
Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 90.6% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his recent special election victory in the district, consistent polling margins, and superior fundraising that outpaced Al Green's by 2-to-1 in Q1. Latest surveys, including a New York Times polling average showing Menefee ahead 41%-35% (+6), reflect his momentum from the March 3 primary where he edged Green, bolstered by incumbency advantages in the safely Democratic Houston-area seat reshaped by redistricting. The May 4 debate saw both align on voting rights, but Menefee's resources enable heavier ad buys targeting key voter blocs. Upsets could arise from a late Green surge among seniority-focused voters, scandal, or unexpectedly low turnout favoring the veteran challenger's base.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$27,264
Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Christian Menefee" con 91%, seguido de "Al Green" con 10%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 91¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 91% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" ha generado $27.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 4, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" es "Christian Menefee" con 91%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 91% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Al Green" con 10%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.