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Finanzas·Ocultar De Nuevo

¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?

Market icon
Finanzas·Ocultar De Nuevo

¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

<$6,000 38%

$6,500-$7,000 19%

$7,000-$7,500 19%

$6,000-$6,500 17%

Polymarket

$11,179 Vol.

<$6,000 38%

$6,500-$7,000 19%

$7,000-$7,500 19%

$6,000-$6,500 17%

Polymarket

$11,179 Vol.

<$6,000

$6,481 Vol.

38%

$6,000-$6,500

$854 Vol.

17%

$6,500-$7,000

$1,137 Vol.

19%

$7,000-$7,500

$564 Vol.

19%

$7,500-$8,000

$985 Vol.

9%

>$8,000

$1,158 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "<$6,000" con 38%, seguido de "$6,500-$7,000" con 19%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 38¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 38% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?" ha generado $11.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 7, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?" es "<$6,000" con 38%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 38% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "$6,500-$7,000" con 19%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.