Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a cautious tilt toward S&P 500 (SPX) closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026 at 29.5% implied probability, outpacing the $6,500-$7,000 band at 22.5%, amid recent market volatility and softening economic signals. The index closed March 31 at 6,528.52 after a 2.91% rally, rebounding from mid-March lows near 6,400, but February unemployment rose to 4.4% and core PCE inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target per March 18 FOMC projections, curbing rate-cut expectations. JPMorgan's March 21 target cut to 7,200 from 7,500 underscores earnings growth moderation risks versus geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Key differentiators include Q1 earnings starting April and April 10 CPI data, which could sway the closely contested bear-moderate bull dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
<$6,000 30%
$6,500-$7,000 24%
$6,000-$6,500 20%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$12,393 Vol.
$12,393 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
30%
$6,000-$6,500
20%
$6,500-$7,000
24%
$7,000-$7,500
19%
$7,500-$8,000
12%
>$8,000
8%
<$6,000 30%
$6,500-$7,000 24%
$6,000-$6,500 20%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$12,393 Vol.
$12,393 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
$7,009 Vol.
30%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,024 Vol.
20%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,223 Vol.
24%
$7,000-$7,500
$588 Vol.
19%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,160 Vol.
12%
>$8,000
$1,389 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a cautious tilt toward S&P 500 (SPX) closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026 at 29.5% implied probability, outpacing the $6,500-$7,000 band at 22.5%, amid recent market volatility and softening economic signals. The index closed March 31 at 6,528.52 after a 2.91% rally, rebounding from mid-March lows near 6,400, but February unemployment rose to 4.4% and core PCE inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target per March 18 FOMC projections, curbing rate-cut expectations. JPMorgan's March 21 target cut to 7,200 from 7,500 underscores earnings growth moderation risks versus geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Key differentiators include Q1 earnings starting April and April 10 CPI data, which could sway the closely contested bear-moderate bull dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$12,393Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a cautious tilt toward S&P 500 (SPX) closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026 at 29.5% implied probability, outpacing the $6,500-$7,000 band at 22.5%, amid recent market volatility and softening economic signals. The index closed March 31 at 6,528.52 after a 2.91% rally, rebounding from mid-March lows near 6,400, but February unemployment rose to 4.4% and core PCE inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target per March 18 FOMC projections, curbing rate-cut expectations. JPMorgan's March 21 target cut to 7,200 from 7,500 underscores earnings growth moderation risks versus geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Key differentiators include Q1 earnings starting April and April 10 CPI data, which could sway the closely contested bear-moderate bull dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$12,393Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a cautious tilt toward S&P 500 (SPX) closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026 at 29.5% implied probability, outpacing the $6,500-$7,000 band at 22.5%, amid recent market volatility and softening economic signals. The index closed March 31 at 6,528.52 after a 2.91% rally, rebounding from mid-March lows near 6,400, but February unemployment rose to 4.4% and core PCE inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target per March 18 FOMC projections, curbing rate-cut expectations. JPMorgan's March 21 target cut to 7,200 from 7,500 underscores earnings growth moderation risks versus geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Key differentiators include Q1 earnings starting April and April 10 CPI data, which could sway the closely contested bear-moderate bull dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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