Robust AI-driven earnings growth, with analysts projecting S&P 500 EPS expansion near 13-25% for 2026, underpins the market-implied odds favoring outcomes above $7,500 at the index's current level near 7,420. Persistent inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside limited scope for additional Fed rate cuts, creates offsetting pressure that keeps the distribution competitive across buckets. Trader consensus aggregates these crosscurrents—strong corporate fundamentals versus macro headwinds—into probabilities that acknowledge resolution uncertainty through year-end, with key swing factors including Q3 earnings delivery and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
>$8,000 29%
$7,500-$8,000 21%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
$30,420 Vol.
$30,420 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
11%
$6,000-$6,500
12%
$6,500-$7,000
15%
$7,000-$7,500
19%
$7,500-$8,000
21%
>$8,000
29%
>$8,000 29%
$7,500-$8,000 21%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
$30,420 Vol.
$30,420 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
$17,468 Vol.
11%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,838 Vol.
12%
$6,500-$7,000
$3,147 Vol.
15%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,640 Vol.
19%
$7,500-$8,000
$3,024 Vol.
21%
>$8,000
$3,303 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust AI-driven earnings growth, with analysts projecting S&P 500 EPS expansion near 13-25% for 2026, underpins the market-implied odds favoring outcomes above $7,500 at the index's current level near 7,420. Persistent inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside limited scope for additional Fed rate cuts, creates offsetting pressure that keeps the distribution competitive across buckets. Trader consensus aggregates these crosscurrents—strong corporate fundamentals versus macro headwinds—into probabilities that acknowledge resolution uncertainty through year-end, with key swing factors including Q3 earnings delivery and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation data.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$30,420Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust AI-driven earnings growth, with analysts projecting S&P 500 EPS expansion near 13-25% for 2026, underpins the market-implied odds favoring outcomes above $7,500 at the index's current level near 7,420. Persistent inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside limited scope for additional Fed rate cuts, creates offsetting pressure that keeps the distribution competitive across buckets. Trader consensus aggregates these crosscurrents—strong corporate fundamentals versus macro headwinds—into probabilities that acknowledge resolution uncertainty through year-end, with key swing factors including Q3 earnings delivery and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation data.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$30,420Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Robust AI-driven earnings growth, with analysts projecting S&P 500 EPS expansion near 13-25% for 2026, underpins the market-implied odds favoring outcomes above $7,500 at the index's current level near 7,420. Persistent inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside limited scope for additional Fed rate cuts, creates offsetting pressure that keeps the distribution competitive across buckets. Trader consensus aggregates these crosscurrents—strong corporate fundamentals versus macro headwinds—into probabilities that acknowledge resolution uncertainty through year-end, with key swing factors including Q3 earnings delivery and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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