Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 year-end close in the $7,000-$7,500 range at 25.5% implied probability, closely matched by <$6,000 at 21%, capturing competitive dynamics from current levels near 7,350 amid high valuations and macro crosscurrents. Recent all-time highs above 7,360 stem from blockbuster Q1 earnings growth of 27.8% year-over-year—the strongest since 2021—fueled by tech rallies and oil price retreats after Middle East de-escalation, yet March CPI inflation surged to 3.3% annually, reinforcing the Fed's steady federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with no cuts signaled. Stable 4.3% unemployment bolsters soft landing bets, while 17.4% 2026 earnings growth outlook supports upside; April CPI on May 12 represents the pivotal swing factor for rate path revisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$6,500-$7,000 25%
<$6,000 21%
$6,000-$6,500 16%
$24,514 Vol.
$24,514 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
21%
$6,000-$6,500
16%
$6,500-$7,000
25%
$7,000-$7,500
28%
$7,500-$8,000
14%
>$8,000
14%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$6,500-$7,000 25%
<$6,000 21%
$6,000-$6,500 16%
$24,514 Vol.
$24,514 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
$15,395 Vol.
21%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,429 Vol.
16%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,328 Vol.
25%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 Vol.
28%
$7,500-$8,000
$2,009 Vol.
14%
>$8,000
$2,240 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 year-end close in the $7,000-$7,500 range at 25.5% implied probability, closely matched by <$6,000 at 21%, capturing competitive dynamics from current levels near 7,350 amid high valuations and macro crosscurrents. Recent all-time highs above 7,360 stem from blockbuster Q1 earnings growth of 27.8% year-over-year—the strongest since 2021—fueled by tech rallies and oil price retreats after Middle East de-escalation, yet March CPI inflation surged to 3.3% annually, reinforcing the Fed's steady federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with no cuts signaled. Stable 4.3% unemployment bolsters soft landing bets, while 17.4% 2026 earnings growth outlook supports upside; April CPI on May 12 represents the pivotal swing factor for rate path revisions.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$24,514Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 year-end close in the $7,000-$7,500 range at 25.5% implied probability, closely matched by <$6,000 at 21%, capturing competitive dynamics from current levels near 7,350 amid high valuations and macro crosscurrents. Recent all-time highs above 7,360 stem from blockbuster Q1 earnings growth of 27.8% year-over-year—the strongest since 2021—fueled by tech rallies and oil price retreats after Middle East de-escalation, yet March CPI inflation surged to 3.3% annually, reinforcing the Fed's steady federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with no cuts signaled. Stable 4.3% unemployment bolsters soft landing bets, while 17.4% 2026 earnings growth outlook supports upside; April CPI on May 12 represents the pivotal swing factor for rate path revisions.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$24,514Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 year-end close in the $7,000-$7,500 range at 25.5% implied probability, closely matched by <$6,000 at 21%, capturing competitive dynamics from current levels near 7,350 amid high valuations and macro crosscurrents. Recent all-time highs above 7,360 stem from blockbuster Q1 earnings growth of 27.8% year-over-year—the strongest since 2021—fueled by tech rallies and oil price retreats after Middle East de-escalation, yet March CPI inflation surged to 3.3% annually, reinforcing the Fed's steady federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with no cuts signaled. Stable 4.3% unemployment bolsters soft landing bets, while 17.4% 2026 earnings growth outlook supports upside; April CPI on May 12 represents the pivotal swing factor for rate path revisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes