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¿S&P 500 siempre alto para...?

Market icon

¿S&P 500 siempre alto para...?

$337,203 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$337,203 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de marzo

$312,988 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 achieves an intraday high price greater than 7,002.28 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the S&P 500's highest intraday high during the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be figures from Yahoo Finance, specifically the finalized "High" numbers listed under historical data (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).Trader sentiment on the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high has turned cautious amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly involving Iran, sparking a risk-off selloff that dropped the index 1.67% in the latest session to around 6,369—roughly 9% below its January 28, 2026 peak of 7,002. This pullback extends a March decline from mid-month highs near 6,800, driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainty overshadowing resilient U.S. economic data like steady labor markets and cooling inflation trends. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, reflect this via market-implied odds pricing in elevated volatility, with the VIX spiking amid fears of oil supply disruptions. Key catalysts ahead include next week's March 30-April 3 economic releases—ISM manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls—and early Q1 earnings from megacaps, alongside the April FOMC meeting where rate cut expectations remain at two for 2026 per Fed funds futures. Historical base rates show the index rebounding from similar 9% drawdowns 80% of the time within three months, but sustained conflict could prolong the correction.

Trader sentiment on the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high has turned cautious amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly involving Iran, sparking a risk-off selloff that dropped the index 1.67% in the latest session to around 6,369—roughly 9% below its January 28, 2026 peak of 7,002. This pullback extends a March decline from mid-month highs near 6,800, driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainty overshadowing resilient U.S. economic data like steady labor markets and cooling inflation trends. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, reflect this via market-implied odds pricing in elevated volatility, with the VIX spiking amid fears of oil supply disruptions. Key catalysts ahead include next week's March 30-April 3 economic releases—ISM manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls—and early Q1 earnings from megacaps, alongside the April FOMC meeting where rate cut expectations remain at two for 2026 per Fed funds futures. Historical base rates show the index rebounding from similar 9% drawdowns 80% of the time within three months, but sustained conflict could prolong the correction.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 achieves an intraday high price greater than 7,002.28 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the S&P 500's highest intraday high during the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be figures from Yahoo Finance, specifically the finalized "High" numbers listed under historical data (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).Trader sentiment on the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high has turned cautious amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly involving Iran, sparking a risk-off selloff that dropped the index 1.67% in the latest session to around 6,369—roughly 9% below its January 28, 2026 peak of 7,002. This pullback extends a March decline from mid-month highs near 6,800, driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainty overshadowing resilient U.S. economic data like steady labor markets and cooling inflation trends. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, reflect this via market-implied odds pricing in elevated volatility, with the VIX spiking amid fears of oil supply disruptions. Key catalysts ahead include next week's March 30-April 3 economic releases—ISM manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls—and early Q1 earnings from megacaps, alongside the April FOMC meeting where rate cut expectations remain at two for 2026 per Fed funds futures. Historical base rates show the index rebounding from similar 9% drawdowns 80% of the time within three months, but sustained conflict could prolong the correction.

Trader sentiment on the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high has turned cautious amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly involving Iran, sparking a risk-off selloff that dropped the index 1.67% in the latest session to around 6,369—roughly 9% below its January 28, 2026 peak of 7,002. This pullback extends a March decline from mid-month highs near 6,800, driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainty overshadowing resilient U.S. economic data like steady labor markets and cooling inflation trends. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, reflect this via market-implied odds pricing in elevated volatility, with the VIX spiking amid fears of oil supply disruptions. Key catalysts ahead include next week's March 30-April 3 economic releases—ISM manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls—and early Q1 earnings from megacaps, alongside the April FOMC meeting where rate cut expectations remain at two for 2026 per Fed funds futures. Historical base rates show the index rebounding from similar 9% drawdowns 80% of the time within three months, but sustained conflict could prolong the correction.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿S&P 500 siempre alto para...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de marzo" con 0%, seguido de "20 de febrero" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 0¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 0% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿S&P 500 siempre alto para...?" ha generado $337.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 12, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿S&P 500 siempre alto para...?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿S&P 500 siempre alto para...?" es "31 de marzo" con solo 0%, con "20 de febrero" muy cerca con 0%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿S&P 500 siempre alto para...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.