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Economía·Indicies

Rendimiento del S&P 500 del primer trimestre

Market icon
Economía·Indicies

Rendimiento del S&P 500 del primer trimestre

<0% 99.3%

2-3% <1%

4-5% <1%

8-10% <1%

Polymarket

$350,267 Vol.

<0% 99.3%

2-3% <1%

4-5% <1%

8-10% <1%

Polymarket

$350,267 Vol.

<0%

$41,634 Vol.

99%

0-2%

$14,888 Vol.

<1%

2-3%

$19,287 Vol.

<1%

3-4%

$43,303 Vol.

<1%

4-5%

$66,967 Vol.

<1%

5-6%

$46,183 Vol.

<1%

6-8%

$59,000 Vol.

<1%

8-10%

$34,678 Vol.

<1%

10%+

$24,325 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Q1 S&P 500 decline at 99.3%, reflecting the index's year-to-date drop of approximately 7% as of the March 27 close at 6,368.85 from December 31, 2025's 6,845.50 level. This positioning stems from escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, including President Trump's delayed strikes on Iranian infrastructure, which soured risk appetite and triggered a 1.7% plunge on March 27 amid rising oil prices and a shift to defensive sectors. Persistent inflation fears from February's hot data and five straight weeks of losses have compounded the downturn, with volatility measures elevated. A reversal to positive territory would require an improbable 7% rally in the final trading days before March 31 resolution, barring major de-escalation news.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Q1 S&P 500 decline at 99.3%, reflecting the index's year-to-date drop of approximately 7% as of the March 27 close at 6,368.85 from December 31, 2025's 6,845.50 level. This positioning stems from escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, including President Trump's delayed strikes on Iranian infrastructure, which soured risk appetite and triggered a 1.7% plunge on March 27 amid rising oil prices and a shift to defensive sectors. Persistent inflation fears from February's hot data and five straight weeks of losses have compounded the downturn, with volatility measures elevated. A reversal to positive territory would require an improbable 7% rally in the final trading days before March 31 resolution, barring major de-escalation news.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Q1 S&P 500 decline at 99.3%, reflecting the index's year-to-date drop of approximately 7% as of the March 27 close at 6,368.85 from December 31, 2025's 6,845.50 level. This positioning stems from escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, including President Trump's delayed strikes on Iranian infrastructure, which soured risk appetite and triggered a 1.7% plunge on March 27 amid rising oil prices and a shift to defensive sectors. Persistent inflation fears from February's hot data and five straight weeks of losses have compounded the downturn, with volatility measures elevated. A reversal to positive territory would require an improbable 7% rally in the final trading days before March 31 resolution, barring major de-escalation news.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Q1 S&P 500 decline at 99.3%, reflecting the index's year-to-date drop of approximately 7% as of the March 27 close at 6,368.85 from December 31, 2025's 6,845.50 level. This positioning stems from escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, including President Trump's delayed strikes on Iranian infrastructure, which soured risk appetite and triggered a 1.7% plunge on March 27 amid rising oil prices and a shift to defensive sectors. Persistent inflation fears from February's hot data and five straight weeks of losses have compounded the downturn, with volatility measures elevated. A reversal to positive territory would require an improbable 7% rally in the final trading days before March 31 resolution, barring major de-escalation news.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Rendimiento del S&P 500 del primer trimestre" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "<0%" con 99%, seguido de "0-2%" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 99¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Rendimiento del S&P 500 del primer trimestre" ha generado $350.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 14, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Rendimiento del S&P 500 del primer trimestre", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Rendimiento del S&P 500 del primer trimestre" es "<0%" con 99%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "0-2%" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Rendimiento del S&P 500 del primer trimestre" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.