Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 performance (<0% return from December 31 close), anchored by the index's year-to-date decline of over 4% as of late March, fueled by escalating trade tensions from proposed Trump administration tariffs on key imports and a sharp tech sector rotation amid fading AI enthusiasm. Elevated valuations—S&P 500 forward P/E near 22x—exacerbate vulnerability to hotter-than-expected February CPI inflation and Federal Reserve signals for shallower 2025 rate cuts, curbing risk appetite. With just days to quarter-end on March 31, a dramatic reversal would demand blockbuster economic data like soft PCE inflation or dovish FOMC hints, though historical late-quarter volatility offers slim upside potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado<0% 98.0%
0-2% <1%
2-3% <1%
4-5% <1%
$319,267 Vol.
$319,267 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<0%
98%
0-2%
1%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
<1%
4-5%
1%
5-6%
<1%
6-8%
<1%
8-10%
<1%
10%+
<1%
<0% 98.0%
0-2% <1%
2-3% <1%
4-5% <1%
$319,267 Vol.
$319,267 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<0%
$39,107 Vol.
98%
0-2%
$12,903 Vol.
1%
2-3%
$17,387 Vol.
1%
3-4%
$41,230 Vol.
<1%
4-5%
$54,548 Vol.
1%
5-6%
$45,693 Vol.
<1%
6-8%
$57,744 Vol.
<1%
8-10%
$28,650 Vol.
<1%
10%+
$23,644 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 performance (<0% return from December 31 close), anchored by the index's year-to-date decline of over 4% as of late March, fueled by escalating trade tensions from proposed Trump administration tariffs on key imports and a sharp tech sector rotation amid fading AI enthusiasm. Elevated valuations—S&P 500 forward P/E near 22x—exacerbate vulnerability to hotter-than-expected February CPI inflation and Federal Reserve signals for shallower 2025 rate cuts, curbing risk appetite. With just days to quarter-end on March 31, a dramatic reversal would demand blockbuster economic data like soft PCE inflation or dovish FOMC hints, though historical late-quarter volatility offers slim upside potential.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Volumen
$319,267Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 performance (<0% return from December 31 close), anchored by the index's year-to-date decline of over 4% as of late March, fueled by escalating trade tensions from proposed Trump administration tariffs on key imports and a sharp tech sector rotation amid fading AI enthusiasm. Elevated valuations—S&P 500 forward P/E near 22x—exacerbate vulnerability to hotter-than-expected February CPI inflation and Federal Reserve signals for shallower 2025 rate cuts, curbing risk appetite. With just days to quarter-end on March 31, a dramatic reversal would demand blockbuster economic data like soft PCE inflation or dovish FOMC hints, though historical late-quarter volatility offers slim upside potential.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Volumen
$319,267Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 performance (<0% return from December 31 close), anchored by the index's year-to-date decline of over 4% as of late March, fueled by escalating trade tensions from proposed Trump administration tariffs on key imports and a sharp tech sector rotation amid fading AI enthusiasm. Elevated valuations—S&P 500 forward P/E near 22x—exacerbate vulnerability to hotter-than-expected February CPI inflation and Federal Reserve signals for shallower 2025 rate cuts, curbing risk appetite. With just days to quarter-end on March 31, a dramatic reversal would demand blockbuster economic data like soft PCE inflation or dovish FOMC hints, though historical late-quarter volatility offers slim upside potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes