Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Yulia Navalnaya a slim edge at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, fueled by her unyielding human rights advocacy against Russian authoritarianism since Alexei Navalny's death, maintaining steady frontrunner momentum amid ongoing dissident narratives. Volodymyr Zelenskyy surged to 9.8% after a formal nomination last week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein EndsjØ, highlighting Ukraine's defensive resilience in the protracted war. Donald Trump sits at 7.5%, buoyed by speculation over U.S.-led diplomatic breakthroughs like recent peace charter signings, yet tempered by committee wariness of past controversies. With top contenders tightly clustered below 11%, the market underscores fierce competition and Nobel unpredictability—secret nominations, surprise precedents like 2024's nuclear survivors, and potential dark horses—ahead of the October 10 announcement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoYulia Navalnaya 11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.8%
Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump 8%
Corte Internacional de Justicia 4.0%
$11,715,617 Vol.
$11,715,617 Vol.
Yulia Navalnaya
11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump
8%
Corte Internacional de Justicia
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV
4%
UNRWA
3%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Greta Thunberg
3%
Narendra Modi
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Charlie Kirk
2%
António Guterres
2%
Elon Musk
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Julian Assange
2%
Khaled Mashal
1%
Mohammed bin Salman
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%
Vladimir Putin
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Yulia Navalnaya 11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.8%
Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump 8%
Corte Internacional de Justicia 4.0%
$11,715,617 Vol.
$11,715,617 Vol.
Yulia Navalnaya
11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump
8%
Corte Internacional de Justicia
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV
4%
UNRWA
3%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Greta Thunberg
3%
Narendra Modi
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Charlie Kirk
2%
António Guterres
2%
Elon Musk
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Julian Assange
2%
Khaled Mashal
1%
Mohammed bin Salman
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%
Vladimir Putin
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Mercado abierto: Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Yulia Navalnaya a slim edge at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, fueled by her unyielding human rights advocacy against Russian authoritarianism since Alexei Navalny's death, maintaining steady frontrunner momentum amid ongoing dissident narratives. Volodymyr Zelenskyy surged to 9.8% after a formal nomination last week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein EndsjØ, highlighting Ukraine's defensive resilience in the protracted war. Donald Trump sits at 7.5%, buoyed by speculation over U.S.-led diplomatic breakthroughs like recent peace charter signings, yet tempered by committee wariness of past controversies. With top contenders tightly clustered below 11%, the market underscores fierce competition and Nobel unpredictability—secret nominations, surprise precedents like 2024's nuclear survivors, and potential dark horses—ahead of the October 10 announcement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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