Market icon
Economía·México

¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?

Market icon
Economía·México

¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?

abr 30

abr 30

0.5-1.0% 43%

1.0-1.5% 31%

0.0-0.5% 18.3%

<0.0% 11.3%

Polymarket
NUEVO

0.5-1.0% 43%

1.0-1.5% 31%

0.0-0.5% 18.3%

<0.0% 11.3%

Polymarket
NUEVO

<0.0%

$384 Vol.

11%

0.0-0.5%

$327 Vol.

18%

0.5-1.0%

$458 Vol.

43%

1.0-1.5%

$627 Vol.

31%

1.5-2.0%

$285 Vol.

11%

2,0-2,5%

$119 Vol.

10%

>2,5%

$127 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% range at a leading 44.5% implied probability, reflecting weak early-year indicators amid persistent headwinds from elevated Banco de México interest rates near 10% and softening U.S. demand risks under USMCA uncertainties. January's Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in months—dragging primary and secondary sectors, while March S&P Global PMIs signaled ongoing manufacturing contraction at 48.9 and non-manufacturing at 49.0. Despite full-year 2026 forecasts around 1.3-1.8% from Banxico and OECD, Q1 momentum remains subdued; February IGAE data due April 20 and preliminary GDP could catalyze shifts.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,328
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% range at a leading 44.5% implied probability, reflecting weak early-year indicators amid persistent headwinds from elevated Banco de México interest rates near 10% and softening U.S. demand risks under USMCA uncertainties. January's Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in months—dragging primary and secondary sectors, while March S&P Global PMIs signaled ongoing manufacturing contraction at 48.9 and non-manufacturing at 49.0. Despite full-year 2026 forecasts around 1.3-1.8% from Banxico and OECD, Q1 momentum remains subdued; February IGAE data due April 20 and preliminary GDP could catalyze shifts.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,328
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "0.5-1.0%" con 43%, seguido de "1.0-1.5%" con 31%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 43¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 31, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?" es "0.5-1.0%" con 43%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1.0-1.5%" con 31%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.