Amid escalating military actions in the ongoing Iran conflict, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) forces have conducted multiple verified kinetic strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, including a March 29 attack on a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman and a March 31 hit on an oil tanker off Dubai, as reported by Reuters and naval trackers. These asymmetric tactics—using missiles, drones, and suicide boats—have reduced traffic through this chokepoint, vital for 20% of global oil, to near-zero despite Iran's naval setbacks. Houthi threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait compound disruptions. Traders monitor US amphibious plans to reopen routes and diplomatic de-escalation signals ahead of potential April intensifications.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$12,340 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 1
99%
April 2
4%
April 3
17%
April 4
19%
April 5
16%
April 6
23%
April 7
33%
April 8
42%
April 9
37%
April 10
31%
$12,340 Vol.
April 1
$7,913 Vol.
99%
April 2
$3,260 Vol.
4%
April 3
$795 Vol.
17%
April 4
$11 Vol.
19%
April 5
$76 Vol.
16%
April 6
$84 Vol.
23%
April 7
$141 Vol.
33%
April 8
$0 Vol.
42%
April 9
$11 Vol.
37%
April 10
$48 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating military actions in the ongoing Iran conflict, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) forces have conducted multiple verified kinetic strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, including a March 29 attack on a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman and a March 31 hit on an oil tanker off Dubai, as reported by Reuters and naval trackers. These asymmetric tactics—using missiles, drones, and suicide boats—have reduced traffic through this chokepoint, vital for 20% of global oil, to near-zero despite Iran's naval setbacks. Houthi threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait compound disruptions. Traders monitor US amphibious plans to reopen routes and diplomatic de-escalation signals ahead of potential April intensifications.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volumen
$12,340Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating military actions in the ongoing Iran conflict, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) forces have conducted multiple verified kinetic strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, including a March 29 attack on a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman and a March 31 hit on an oil tanker off Dubai, as reported by Reuters and naval trackers. These asymmetric tactics—using missiles, drones, and suicide boats—have reduced traffic through this chokepoint, vital for 20% of global oil, to near-zero despite Iran's naval setbacks. Houthi threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait compound disruptions. Traders monitor US amphibious plans to reopen routes and diplomatic de-escalation signals ahead of potential April intensifications.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$12,340Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating military actions in the ongoing Iran conflict, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) forces have conducted multiple verified kinetic strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, including a March 29 attack on a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman and a March 31 hit on an oil tanker off Dubai, as reported by Reuters and naval trackers. These asymmetric tactics—using missiles, drones, and suicide boats—have reduced traffic through this chokepoint, vital for 20% of global oil, to near-zero despite Iran's naval setbacks. Houthi threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait compound disruptions. Traders monitor US amphibious plans to reopen routes and diplomatic de-escalation signals ahead of potential April intensifications.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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