Trader sentiment on India's 2026 annual CPI inflation remains tightly contested, with the 2.25%-2.99% bin at 31% implied probability edging out 4.50%+ at 30.5%, reflecting divergent views on price persistence amid the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2.1% FY26 forecast versus recent upticks. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.21% year-over-year—the first print under the new 2024=100 base—from January's 2.75%, fueled by food and energy pressures including global oil risks, prompting bets on upside breaches of RBI's 4% target band. Core inflation stays benign, supporting lower-bucket optimism, but swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the next RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where rate path signals could tip the balance on second-half trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado4,50%+ 31%
2.25% a 2.99% 30%
3,75% a 4,49% 15%
1,50% a 2,24% 11%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
8%
0,75% a 1,49%
3%
1,50% a 2,24%
11%
2.25% a 2.99%
30%
3,00% a 3,74%
11%
3,75% a 4,49%
15%
4,50%+
31%
4,50%+ 31%
2.25% a 2.99% 30%
3,75% a 4,49% 15%
1,50% a 2,24% 11%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
$568 Vol.
8%
0,75% a 1,49%
$271 Vol.
3%
1,50% a 2,24%
$340 Vol.
11%
2.25% a 2.99%
$22,328 Vol.
30%
3,00% a 3,74%
$375 Vol.
11%
3,75% a 4,49%
$22,735 Vol.
15%
4,50%+
$10,633 Vol.
31%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader sentiment on India's 2026 annual CPI inflation remains tightly contested, with the 2.25%-2.99% bin at 31% implied probability edging out 4.50%+ at 30.5%, reflecting divergent views on price persistence amid the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2.1% FY26 forecast versus recent upticks. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.21% year-over-year—the first print under the new 2024=100 base—from January's 2.75%, fueled by food and energy pressures including global oil risks, prompting bets on upside breaches of RBI's 4% target band. Core inflation stays benign, supporting lower-bucket optimism, but swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the next RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where rate path signals could tip the balance on second-half trajectory.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$57,251Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader sentiment on India's 2026 annual CPI inflation remains tightly contested, with the 2.25%-2.99% bin at 31% implied probability edging out 4.50%+ at 30.5%, reflecting divergent views on price persistence amid the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2.1% FY26 forecast versus recent upticks. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.21% year-over-year—the first print under the new 2024=100 base—from January's 2.75%, fueled by food and energy pressures including global oil risks, prompting bets on upside breaches of RBI's 4% target band. Core inflation stays benign, supporting lower-bucket optimism, but swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the next RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where rate path signals could tip the balance on second-half trajectory.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$57,251Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on India's 2026 annual CPI inflation remains tightly contested, with the 2.25%-2.99% bin at 31% implied probability edging out 4.50%+ at 30.5%, reflecting divergent views on price persistence amid the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2.1% FY26 forecast versus recent upticks. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.21% year-over-year—the first print under the new 2024=100 base—from January's 2.75%, fueled by food and energy pressures including global oil risks, prompting bets on upside breaches of RBI's 4% target band. Core inflation stays benign, supporting lower-bucket optimism, but swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the next RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where rate path signals could tip the balance on second-half trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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