Polymarket traders price a 31.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, narrowly ahead of lower bands around 25-26%, reflecting heightened uncertainty from recent accelerations and geopolitical risks. February 2026 CPI rose 47 basis points year-over-year to 3.21%—a 10-month high under the new 2024 base year series—driven by food and fuel pressures, following January's 2.75% reading, while core inflation remains subdued below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target. Surging Indian crude basket prices near $124 per barrel amid West Asia tensions have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, with analysts like Goldman Sachs lifting 2026 projections to 4.2% and others eyeing 5.1% for FY2026/27. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the RBI's April MPC outlook, where policy stance amid 5.25% repo rate could signal rate hike risks if oil persists.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado4,50%+ 32%
3,75% a 4,49% 25%
2.25% a 2.99% 19%
<0,75% 16%
$57,341 Vol.
$57,341 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
16%
0,75% a 1,49%
5%
1,50% a 2,24%
26%
2.25% a 2.99%
25%
3,00% a 3,74%
10%
3,75% a 4,49%
25%
4,50%+
32%
4,50%+ 32%
3,75% a 4,49% 25%
2.25% a 2.99% 19%
<0,75% 16%
$57,341 Vol.
$57,341 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
$632 Vol.
16%
0,75% a 1,49%
$271 Vol.
5%
1,50% a 2,24%
$340 Vol.
26%
2.25% a 2.99%
$22,328 Vol.
25%
3,00% a 3,74%
$375 Vol.
10%
3,75% a 4,49%
$22,735 Vol.
25%
4,50%+
$10,659 Vol.
32%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders price a 31.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, narrowly ahead of lower bands around 25-26%, reflecting heightened uncertainty from recent accelerations and geopolitical risks. February 2026 CPI rose 47 basis points year-over-year to 3.21%—a 10-month high under the new 2024 base year series—driven by food and fuel pressures, following January's 2.75% reading, while core inflation remains subdued below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target. Surging Indian crude basket prices near $124 per barrel amid West Asia tensions have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, with analysts like Goldman Sachs lifting 2026 projections to 4.2% and others eyeing 5.1% for FY2026/27. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the RBI's April MPC outlook, where policy stance amid 5.25% repo rate could signal rate hike risks if oil persists.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$57,341Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders price a 31.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, narrowly ahead of lower bands around 25-26%, reflecting heightened uncertainty from recent accelerations and geopolitical risks. February 2026 CPI rose 47 basis points year-over-year to 3.21%—a 10-month high under the new 2024 base year series—driven by food and fuel pressures, following January's 2.75% reading, while core inflation remains subdued below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target. Surging Indian crude basket prices near $124 per barrel amid West Asia tensions have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, with analysts like Goldman Sachs lifting 2026 projections to 4.2% and others eyeing 5.1% for FY2026/27. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the RBI's April MPC outlook, where policy stance amid 5.25% repo rate could signal rate hike risks if oil persists.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$57,341Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 31.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, narrowly ahead of lower bands around 25-26%, reflecting heightened uncertainty from recent accelerations and geopolitical risks. February 2026 CPI rose 47 basis points year-over-year to 3.21%—a 10-month high under the new 2024 base year series—driven by food and fuel pressures, following January's 2.75% reading, while core inflation remains subdued below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target. Surging Indian crude basket prices near $124 per barrel amid West Asia tensions have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, with analysts like Goldman Sachs lifting 2026 projections to 4.2% and others eyeing 5.1% for FY2026/27. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the RBI's April MPC outlook, where policy stance amid 5.25% repo rate could signal rate hike risks if oil persists.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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