Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "17°C or below" at 38% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime maximum near 20°C amid a low-pressure trough over the eastern Mediterranean bringing cloudy skies, possible showers, and cooler air advection. This setup limits solar heating and caps peaks below April climatological norms of 23–24°C, with historical spring analogs showing similar synoptic patterns yielding highs 3–5°C below average. Fragmented pricing across 18–23°C outcomes (16–22%) reflects model spread uncertainty, including potential afternoon clearing; watch Israel Meteorological Service daily advisories and 00Z model runs for shifts, as resolution hinges on official NOAA measurements at Ben Gurion Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 4?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 4?
17°C or below 36%
23°C 22%
27°C or higher 21%
22°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
17°C or below
36%
18°C
17%
19°C
17%
20°C
17%
21°C
17%
22°C
19%
23°C
22%
24°C
17%
25°C
15%
26°C
13%
27°C or higher
21%
17°C or below 36%
23°C 22%
27°C or higher 21%
22°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
36%
18°C
$5 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
17%
20°C
$0 Vol.
17%
21°C
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
15%
26°C
$20 Vol.
13%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "17°C or below" at 38% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime maximum near 20°C amid a low-pressure trough over the eastern Mediterranean bringing cloudy skies, possible showers, and cooler air advection. This setup limits solar heating and caps peaks below April climatological norms of 23–24°C, with historical spring analogs showing similar synoptic patterns yielding highs 3–5°C below average. Fragmented pricing across 18–23°C outcomes (16–22%) reflects model spread uncertainty, including potential afternoon clearing; watch Israel Meteorological Service daily advisories and 00Z model runs for shifts, as resolution hinges on official NOAA measurements at Ben Gurion Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volumen
$30Fecha de finalización
Apr 4, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "17°C or below" at 38% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime maximum near 20°C amid a low-pressure trough over the eastern Mediterranean bringing cloudy skies, possible showers, and cooler air advection. This setup limits solar heating and caps peaks below April climatological norms of 23–24°C, with historical spring analogs showing similar synoptic patterns yielding highs 3–5°C below average. Fragmented pricing across 18–23°C outcomes (16–22%) reflects model spread uncertainty, including potential afternoon clearing; watch Israel Meteorological Service daily advisories and 00Z model runs for shifts, as resolution hinges on official NOAA measurements at Ben Gurion Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30Fecha de finalización
Apr 4, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "17°C or below" at 38% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime maximum near 20°C amid a low-pressure trough over the eastern Mediterranean bringing cloudy skies, possible showers, and cooler air advection. This setup limits solar heating and caps peaks below April climatological norms of 23–24°C, with historical spring analogs showing similar synoptic patterns yielding highs 3–5°C below average. Fragmented pricing across 18–23°C outcomes (16–22%) reflects model spread uncertainty, including potential afternoon clearing; watch Israel Meteorological Service daily advisories and 00Z model runs for shifts, as resolution hinges on official NOAA measurements at Ben Gurion Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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