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Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

31°C or higher 22%

21°C or below 21%

25°C 19%

26°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

31°C or higher 22%

21°C or below 21%

25°C 19%

26°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

21°C or below

$0 Vol.

21%

22°C

$5 Vol.

18%

23°C

$0 Vol.

18%

24°C

$0 Vol.

18%

25°C

$0 Vol.

19%

26°C

$0 Vol.

19%

27°C

$0 Vol.

18%

28°C

$0 Vol.

18%

29°C

$0 Vol.

18%

30°C

$0 Vol.

18%

31°C or higher

$0 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows evenly matched implied probabilities around 17–21% across outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 4 amid divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs. The city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields April highs near the 26°C climatological normal, with historical variability allowing cooler spells below 22°C under persistent cloud cover—as seen in recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports of late-March thunderstorms—or hotter days above 30°C if a high-pressure ridge strengthens solar heating and urban effects. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions supports typical patterns without extremes; upcoming SMN updates and model refreshes every 12 hours will clarify ridge development versus frontal influences differentiating mid-20s from tail outcomes.

Trader consensus on Polymarket shows evenly matched implied probabilities around 17–21% across outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 4 amid divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs. The city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields April highs near the 26°C climatological normal, with historical variability allowing cooler spells below 22°C under persistent cloud cover—as seen in recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports of late-March thunderstorms—or hotter days above 30°C if a high-pressure ridge strengthens solar heating and urban effects. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions supports typical patterns without extremes; upcoming SMN updates and model refreshes every 12 hours will clarify ridge development versus frontal influences differentiating mid-20s from tail outcomes.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows evenly matched implied probabilities around 17–21% across outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 4 amid divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs. The city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields April highs near the 26°C climatological normal, with historical variability allowing cooler spells below 22°C under persistent cloud cover—as seen in recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports of late-March thunderstorms—or hotter days above 30°C if a high-pressure ridge strengthens solar heating and urban effects. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions supports typical patterns without extremes; upcoming SMN updates and model refreshes every 12 hours will clarify ridge development versus frontal influences differentiating mid-20s from tail outcomes.

Trader consensus on Polymarket shows evenly matched implied probabilities around 17–21% across outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 4 amid divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs. The city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields April highs near the 26°C climatological normal, with historical variability allowing cooler spells below 22°C under persistent cloud cover—as seen in recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports of late-March thunderstorms—or hotter days above 30°C if a high-pressure ridge strengthens solar heating and urban effects. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions supports typical patterns without extremes; upcoming SMN updates and model refreshes every 12 hours will clarify ridge development versus frontal influences differentiating mid-20s from tail outcomes.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31°C or higher" con 22%, seguido de "21°C or below" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 22¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 22% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 29, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?" es "31°C or higher" con 22%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 22% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "21°C or below" con 21%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.