A renewed Hezbollah-Israel conflict, ignited by Hezbollah's rocket and drone barrages into northern Israel starting March 2, 2026—the first since the November 2024 ceasefire—has escalated into daily exchanges of airstrikes, artillery, and Israeli ground incursions deep into southern Lebanon. Over 400 Hezbollah fighters have been killed amid Israel's advances toward the Litani River, with recent hits including a combined Iran-Hezbollah rocket strike on Haifa's oil refinery yesterday. Hezbollah vows continued defiance targeting IDF positions, while Israel coordinates with U.S. forces for broader operations. Traders weigh risks of further escalation against potential ceasefires or diplomatic interventions, with no major de-escalation signals in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
$2,467,076 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
90%
March 30
93%
March 31
85%
$2,467,076 Vol.
March 29
$46,987 Vol.
90%
March 30
$28,400 Vol.
93%
March 31
$13,023 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A renewed Hezbollah-Israel conflict, ignited by Hezbollah's rocket and drone barrages into northern Israel starting March 2, 2026—the first since the November 2024 ceasefire—has escalated into daily exchanges of airstrikes, artillery, and Israeli ground incursions deep into southern Lebanon. Over 400 Hezbollah fighters have been killed amid Israel's advances toward the Litani River, with recent hits including a combined Iran-Hezbollah rocket strike on Haifa's oil refinery yesterday. Hezbollah vows continued defiance targeting IDF positions, while Israel coordinates with U.S. forces for broader operations. Traders weigh risks of further escalation against potential ceasefires or diplomatic interventions, with no major de-escalation signals in the past week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volumen
$2,467,076Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A renewed Hezbollah-Israel conflict, ignited by Hezbollah's rocket and drone barrages into northern Israel starting March 2, 2026—the first since the November 2024 ceasefire—has escalated into daily exchanges of airstrikes, artillery, and Israeli ground incursions deep into southern Lebanon. Over 400 Hezbollah fighters have been killed amid Israel's advances toward the Litani River, with recent hits including a combined Iran-Hezbollah rocket strike on Haifa's oil refinery yesterday. Hezbollah vows continued defiance targeting IDF positions, while Israel coordinates with U.S. forces for broader operations. Traders weigh risks of further escalation against potential ceasefires or diplomatic interventions, with no major de-escalation signals in the past week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,467,076Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
A renewed Hezbollah-Israel conflict, ignited by Hezbollah's rocket and drone barrages into northern Israel starting March 2, 2026—the first since the November 2024 ceasefire—has escalated into daily exchanges of airstrikes, artillery, and Israeli ground incursions deep into southern Lebanon. Over 400 Hezbollah fighters have been killed amid Israel's advances toward the Litani River, with recent hits including a combined Iran-Hezbollah rocket strike on Haifa's oil refinery yesterday. Hezbollah vows continued defiance targeting IDF positions, while Israel coordinates with U.S. forces for broader operations. Traders weigh risks of further escalation against potential ceasefires or diplomatic interventions, with no major de-escalation signals in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes