Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second consecutive session amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. Despite a softening labor market—highlighted by February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000—geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict have lifted inflation outlooks, delaying rate cut expectations and elevating odds for a 25 basis point hike to 7.2%, with trader consensus viewing the current stance as neutral. Key upcoming catalysts include the March CPI release on April 10 and the April FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied rate paths versus the Fed's latest dot plot projections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNo change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,248,774 Vol.
$2,248,774 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,248,774 Vol.
$2,248,774 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$43,367 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,790 Vol.
14%
No change
$43,029 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$2,085,414 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$49,174 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second consecutive session amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. Despite a softening labor market—highlighted by February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000—geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict have lifted inflation outlooks, delaying rate cut expectations and elevating odds for a 25 basis point hike to 7.2%, with trader consensus viewing the current stance as neutral. Key upcoming catalysts include the March CPI release on April 10 and the April FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied rate paths versus the Fed's latest dot plot projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,248,774Fecha de finalización
Jul 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second consecutive session amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. Despite a softening labor market—highlighted by February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000—geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict have lifted inflation outlooks, delaying rate cut expectations and elevating odds for a 25 basis point hike to 7.2%, with trader consensus viewing the current stance as neutral. Key upcoming catalysts include the March CPI release on April 10 and the April FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied rate paths versus the Fed's latest dot plot projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$2,248,774Fecha de finalización
Jul 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second consecutive session amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. Despite a softening labor market—highlighted by February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000—geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict have lifted inflation outlooks, delaying rate cut expectations and elevating odds for a 25 basis point hike to 7.2%, with trader consensus viewing the current stance as neutral. Key upcoming catalysts include the March CPI release on April 10 and the April FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied rate paths versus the Fed's latest dot plot projections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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