Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic growth, steady 4.4% unemployment, and upwardly revised inflation projections in the Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one 25 basis point cut for the year. Softer-than-expected February producer price index data has bolstered 15.5% odds for a quarter-point easing, while geopolitical tensions including Iran-related oil supply shocks have lifted 25 basis point hike probabilities to 8.3%, introducing modest hawkish tail risks. Key upcoming catalysts include April 10 CPI release and monthly nonfarm payrolls, which could shift rate path expectations ahead of summer meetings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNo change 74%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 8.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,134,348 Vol.
$2,134,348 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
8%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 8.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,134,348 Vol.
$2,134,348 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$41,231 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$25,625 Vol.
16%
No change
$35,899 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$1,992,207 Vol.
8%
50+ bps increase
$45,525 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic growth, steady 4.4% unemployment, and upwardly revised inflation projections in the Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one 25 basis point cut for the year. Softer-than-expected February producer price index data has bolstered 15.5% odds for a quarter-point easing, while geopolitical tensions including Iran-related oil supply shocks have lifted 25 basis point hike probabilities to 8.3%, introducing modest hawkish tail risks. Key upcoming catalysts include April 10 CPI release and monthly nonfarm payrolls, which could shift rate path expectations ahead of summer meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,134,348Fecha de finalización
Jul 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic growth, steady 4.4% unemployment, and upwardly revised inflation projections in the Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one 25 basis point cut for the year. Softer-than-expected February producer price index data has bolstered 15.5% odds for a quarter-point easing, while geopolitical tensions including Iran-related oil supply shocks have lifted 25 basis point hike probabilities to 8.3%, introducing modest hawkish tail risks. Key upcoming catalysts include April 10 CPI release and monthly nonfarm payrolls, which could shift rate path expectations ahead of summer meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$2,134,348Fecha de finalización
Jul 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic growth, steady 4.4% unemployment, and upwardly revised inflation projections in the Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one 25 basis point cut for the year. Softer-than-expected February producer price index data has bolstered 15.5% odds for a quarter-point easing, while geopolitical tensions including Iran-related oil supply shocks have lifted 25 basis point hike probabilities to 8.3%, introducing modest hawkish tail risks. Key upcoming catalysts include April 10 CPI release and monthly nonfarm payrolls, which could shift rate path expectations ahead of summer meetings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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