Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting hawkish repricing after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking oil-driven price pressures. Despite softening labor markets—highlighted by February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payroll decline—the updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, tempering cut odds to 12.5% for a quarter-point easing while hike probabilities at 7.7% capture persistent inflation concerns. Key catalysts ahead include April and June FOMC meetings plus upcoming March CPI and jobs data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNo change 78%
25 bps decrease 13%
25 bps increase 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,324,176 Vol.
$2,324,176 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
13%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
8%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps decrease 13%
25 bps increase 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,324,176 Vol.
$2,324,176 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$44,201 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,832 Vol.
13%
No change
$43,064 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$2,160,366 Vol.
8%
50+ bps increase
$49,535 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting hawkish repricing after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking oil-driven price pressures. Despite softening labor markets—highlighted by February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payroll decline—the updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, tempering cut odds to 12.5% for a quarter-point easing while hike probabilities at 7.7% capture persistent inflation concerns. Key catalysts ahead include April and June FOMC meetings plus upcoming March CPI and jobs data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,324,176Fecha de finalización
Jul 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting hawkish repricing after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking oil-driven price pressures. Despite softening labor markets—highlighted by February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payroll decline—the updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, tempering cut odds to 12.5% for a quarter-point easing while hike probabilities at 7.7% capture persistent inflation concerns. Key catalysts ahead include April and June FOMC meetings plus upcoming March CPI and jobs data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$2,324,176Fecha de finalización
Jul 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting hawkish repricing after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking oil-driven price pressures. Despite softening labor markets—highlighted by February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payroll decline—the updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, tempering cut odds to 12.5% for a quarter-point easing while hike probabilities at 7.7% capture persistent inflation concerns. Key catalysts ahead include April and June FOMC meetings plus upcoming March CPI and jobs data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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