Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by March 2026 flash Eurozone CPI surging to 2.5% from 1.9% in February amid Middle East-fueled energy price spikes. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% in its March 19 meeting but raised 2026 HICP inflation forecasts to 2.6%, fueling hawkish repricing from banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley anticipating hikes starting April. No-change odds at 20% reflect lingering disinflation debates, while cut probabilities below 4% underscore upside inflation risks; watch April 29 policy decision and Q1 GDP for catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 73%
No change 20%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 6.9%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
20%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
73%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
7%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 73%
No change 20%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 6.9%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$674 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$651 Vol.
4%
No change
$942 Vol.
20%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$1,355 Vol.
73%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$974 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by March 2026 flash Eurozone CPI surging to 2.5% from 1.9% in February amid Middle East-fueled energy price spikes. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% in its March 19 meeting but raised 2026 HICP inflation forecasts to 2.6%, fueling hawkish repricing from banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley anticipating hikes starting April. No-change odds at 20% reflect lingering disinflation debates, while cut probabilities below 4% underscore upside inflation risks; watch April 29 policy decision and Q1 GDP for catalysts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$4,596Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by March 2026 flash Eurozone CPI surging to 2.5% from 1.9% in February amid Middle East-fueled energy price spikes. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% in its March 19 meeting but raised 2026 HICP inflation forecasts to 2.6%, fueling hawkish repricing from banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley anticipating hikes starting April. No-change odds at 20% reflect lingering disinflation debates, while cut probabilities below 4% underscore upside inflation risks; watch April 29 policy decision and Q1 GDP for catalysts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$4,596Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by March 2026 flash Eurozone CPI surging to 2.5% from 1.9% in February amid Middle East-fueled energy price spikes. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% in its March 19 meeting but raised 2026 HICP inflation forecasts to 2.6%, fueling hawkish repricing from banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley anticipating hikes starting April. No-change odds at 20% reflect lingering disinflation debates, while cut probabilities below 4% underscore upside inflation risks; watch April 29 policy decision and Q1 GDP for catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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