Polymarket traders express divided sentiment on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate at year-end 2026, pricing a 34.5% implied probability for below 1600 versus 30% for 1600–1699, amid uncertainty over the sustainability of President Milei's monetary stabilization. The January 2026 shift to crawling exchange rate bands expanding monthly with inflation—currently stalled near 3% for nine months—has anchored the peso around 1395 from current levels, but persistent inflation risks 30–40% annual depreciation if unchecked. Central Bank (BCRA) reserve accumulation, up $1 billion in February, and falling poverty rates signal progress, yet rising fuel prices and upcoming March inflation data (forecast ~2.9%) represent pivotal swing factors that could either reinforce sub-1600 stability or push toward higher brackets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$12,983 Vol.
$12,983 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<1600,00
35%
1600,00–1699,99
29%
1700,00–1799,99
18%
1800,00–1899,99
14%
1900,00–1999,99
9%
2000,00+
8%
$12,983 Vol.
$12,983 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<1600,00
$1,124 Vol.
35%
1600,00–1699,99
$0 Vol.
29%
1700,00–1799,99
$0 Vol.
18%
1800,00–1899,99
$0 Vol.
14%
1900,00–1999,99
$10,952 Vol.
9%
2000,00+
$907 Vol.
8%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders express divided sentiment on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate at year-end 2026, pricing a 34.5% implied probability for below 1600 versus 30% for 1600–1699, amid uncertainty over the sustainability of President Milei's monetary stabilization. The January 2026 shift to crawling exchange rate bands expanding monthly with inflation—currently stalled near 3% for nine months—has anchored the peso around 1395 from current levels, but persistent inflation risks 30–40% annual depreciation if unchecked. Central Bank (BCRA) reserve accumulation, up $1 billion in February, and falling poverty rates signal progress, yet rising fuel prices and upcoming March inflation data (forecast ~2.9%) represent pivotal swing factors that could either reinforce sub-1600 stability or push toward higher brackets.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volumen
$12,983Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders express divided sentiment on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate at year-end 2026, pricing a 34.5% implied probability for below 1600 versus 30% for 1600–1699, amid uncertainty over the sustainability of President Milei's monetary stabilization. The January 2026 shift to crawling exchange rate bands expanding monthly with inflation—currently stalled near 3% for nine months—has anchored the peso around 1395 from current levels, but persistent inflation risks 30–40% annual depreciation if unchecked. Central Bank (BCRA) reserve accumulation, up $1 billion in February, and falling poverty rates signal progress, yet rising fuel prices and upcoming March inflation data (forecast ~2.9%) represent pivotal swing factors that could either reinforce sub-1600 stability or push toward higher brackets.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$12,983Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders express divided sentiment on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate at year-end 2026, pricing a 34.5% implied probability for below 1600 versus 30% for 1600–1699, amid uncertainty over the sustainability of President Milei's monetary stabilization. The January 2026 shift to crawling exchange rate bands expanding monthly with inflation—currently stalled near 3% for nine months—has anchored the peso around 1395 from current levels, but persistent inflation risks 30–40% annual depreciation if unchecked. Central Bank (BCRA) reserve accumulation, up $1 billion in February, and falling poverty rates signal progress, yet rising fuel prices and upcoming March inflation data (forecast ~2.9%) represent pivotal swing factors that could either reinforce sub-1600 stability or push toward higher brackets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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