Polymarket traders assign a 52.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting consensus on sustained crawling peg devaluation amid persistent inflation pressures. February 2026 monthly inflation held steady at 2.9%—above consensus forecasts—with annual CPI ticking up to 33.1%, pressuring the Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina (BCRA) to adjust the official rate, currently near 1390, in line with monetary policy under President Milei. Fiscal consolidation via primary surplus targets supports disinflation efforts, yet sluggish Q1 economic growth and $26 billion in dollar purchases since controls eased signal ongoing peso weakness. March CPI data, due imminently, and 2026 debt maturities exceeding $19 billion loom as key catalysts, with lower bins like <1250 (10.1%) pricing in accelerated reserve buildup or policy pivots.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado1600.00+ 41%
<1250,00 10.0%
1350,00–1399,99 8.1%
1450,00–1499,99 7.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
<1250,00
10%
1250,00–1299,99
8%
1300,00–1349,99
5%
1350,00–1399,99
8%
1400,00–1449,99
6%
1450,00–1499,99
8%
1500,00–1549,99
9%
1550,00–1599,99
6%
1600.00+
53%
1600.00+ 41%
<1250,00 10.0%
1350,00–1399,99 8.1%
1450,00–1499,99 7.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
<1250,00
$0 Vol.
10%
1250,00–1299,99
$0 Vol.
8%
1300,00–1349,99
$0 Vol.
5%
1350,00–1399,99
$0 Vol.
8%
1400,00–1449,99
$0 Vol.
6%
1450,00–1499,99
$677 Vol.
8%
1500,00–1549,99
$667 Vol.
9%
1550,00–1599,99
$0 Vol.
6%
1600.00+
$1,324 Vol.
53%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 52.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting consensus on sustained crawling peg devaluation amid persistent inflation pressures. February 2026 monthly inflation held steady at 2.9%—above consensus forecasts—with annual CPI ticking up to 33.1%, pressuring the Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina (BCRA) to adjust the official rate, currently near 1390, in line with monetary policy under President Milei. Fiscal consolidation via primary surplus targets supports disinflation efforts, yet sluggish Q1 economic growth and $26 billion in dollar purchases since controls eased signal ongoing peso weakness. March CPI data, due imminently, and 2026 debt maturities exceeding $19 billion loom as key catalysts, with lower bins like <1250 (10.1%) pricing in accelerated reserve buildup or policy pivots.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volumen
$2,668Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 52.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting consensus on sustained crawling peg devaluation amid persistent inflation pressures. February 2026 monthly inflation held steady at 2.9%—above consensus forecasts—with annual CPI ticking up to 33.1%, pressuring the Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina (BCRA) to adjust the official rate, currently near 1390, in line with monetary policy under President Milei. Fiscal consolidation via primary surplus targets supports disinflation efforts, yet sluggish Q1 economic growth and $26 billion in dollar purchases since controls eased signal ongoing peso weakness. March CPI data, due imminently, and 2026 debt maturities exceeding $19 billion loom as key catalysts, with lower bins like <1250 (10.1%) pricing in accelerated reserve buildup or policy pivots.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$2,668Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 52.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting consensus on sustained crawling peg devaluation amid persistent inflation pressures. February 2026 monthly inflation held steady at 2.9%—above consensus forecasts—with annual CPI ticking up to 33.1%, pressuring the Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina (BCRA) to adjust the official rate, currently near 1390, in line with monetary policy under President Milei. Fiscal consolidation via primary surplus targets supports disinflation efforts, yet sluggish Q1 economic growth and $26 billion in dollar purchases since controls eased signal ongoing peso weakness. March CPI data, due imminently, and 2026 debt maturities exceeding $19 billion loom as key catalysts, with lower bins like <1250 (10.1%) pricing in accelerated reserve buildup or policy pivots.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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