Market icon

¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?

Market icon

¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?

May 31

May 31

$19,183 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$19,183 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de marzo

$6,635 Vol.

12%

30 de abril

$9,209 Vol.

65%

31 de mayo

$3,339 Vol.

84%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The M7.5 earthquake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24 at intermediate depth via normal faulting marks the most recent major event, resetting expectations for the next occurrence in this market tracking a follow-up M7.0 or greater globally. USGS data confirms no additional M7+ quakes since, with only one in the past 30 days amid a typical annual rate of 15-20 such events worldwide, following Poisson-like clustering patterns. Trader consensus hinges on historical frequency—roughly one every 18-24 days—against the market's end date, though precise prediction remains impossible due to seismic randomness. Monitor USGS real-time feeds for confirmations, as aftershocks rarely exceed the mainshock magnitude.

The M7.5 earthquake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24 at intermediate depth via normal faulting marks the most recent major event, resetting expectations for the next occurrence in this market tracking a follow-up M7.0 or greater globally. USGS data confirms no additional M7+ quakes since, with only one in the past 30 days amid a typical annual rate of 15-20 such events worldwide, following Poisson-like clustering patterns. Trader consensus hinges on historical frequency—roughly one every 18-24 days—against the market's end date, though precise prediction remains impossible due to seismic randomness. Monitor USGS real-time feeds for confirmations, as aftershocks rarely exceed the mainshock magnitude.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The M7.5 earthquake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24 at intermediate depth via normal faulting marks the most recent major event, resetting expectations for the next occurrence in this market tracking a follow-up M7.0 or greater globally. USGS data confirms no additional M7+ quakes since, with only one in the past 30 days amid a typical annual rate of 15-20 such events worldwide, following Poisson-like clustering patterns. Trader consensus hinges on historical frequency—roughly one every 18-24 days—against the market's end date, though precise prediction remains impossible due to seismic randomness. Monitor USGS real-time feeds for confirmations, as aftershocks rarely exceed the mainshock magnitude.

The M7.5 earthquake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24 at intermediate depth via normal faulting marks the most recent major event, resetting expectations for the next occurrence in this market tracking a follow-up M7.0 or greater globally. USGS data confirms no additional M7+ quakes since, with only one in the past 30 days amid a typical annual rate of 15-20 such events worldwide, following Poisson-like clustering patterns. Trader consensus hinges on historical frequency—roughly one every 18-24 days—against the market's end date, though precise prediction remains impossible due to seismic randomness. Monitor USGS real-time feeds for confirmations, as aftershocks rarely exceed the mainshock magnitude.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de mayo" con 84%, seguido de "30 de abril" con 65%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 84¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 84% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?" ha generado $19.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 26, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?" es "31 de mayo" con 84%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 84% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de abril" con 65%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.