Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis from US-Iran hostilities, daily commercial transits have plunged from a pre-conflict average of 130 vessels to 0-6 ships, per IMF Portwatch and Windward data, as Tehran selectively permits allied vessels from China, India, and Pakistan while blocking Western ships and charging multimillion-dollar tolls. Polymarket traders reflect this in market-implied odds of just 5% for 20+ transits on any March day, with even lower for higher bins, backed by $579K volume. Brent crude surged to $91/bbl amid 20% global oil supply risks, war risk premiums up 50x normal, and tanker charters quadrupled; bilateral deals offer minor upticks, but March 31 data release remains the key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$586,828 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
20+
6%
40+
3%
60+
2%
80+
1%
$586,828 Vol.
20+
$265,263 Vol.
6%
40+
$100,743 Vol.
3%
60+
$83,611 Vol.
2%
80+
$137,211 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis from US-Iran hostilities, daily commercial transits have plunged from a pre-conflict average of 130 vessels to 0-6 ships, per IMF Portwatch and Windward data, as Tehran selectively permits allied vessels from China, India, and Pakistan while blocking Western ships and charging multimillion-dollar tolls. Polymarket traders reflect this in market-implied odds of just 5% for 20+ transits on any March day, with even lower for higher bins, backed by $579K volume. Brent crude surged to $91/bbl amid 20% global oil supply risks, war risk premiums up 50x normal, and tanker charters quadrupled; bilateral deals offer minor upticks, but March 31 data release remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$586,828Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis from US-Iran hostilities, daily commercial transits have plunged from a pre-conflict average of 130 vessels to 0-6 ships, per IMF Portwatch and Windward data, as Tehran selectively permits allied vessels from China, India, and Pakistan while blocking Western ships and charging multimillion-dollar tolls. Polymarket traders reflect this in market-implied odds of just 5% for 20+ transits on any March day, with even lower for higher bins, backed by $579K volume. Brent crude surged to $91/bbl amid 20% global oil supply risks, war risk premiums up 50x normal, and tanker charters quadrupled; bilateral deals offer minor upticks, but March 31 data release remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$586,828Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis from US-Iran hostilities, daily commercial transits have plunged from a pre-conflict average of 130 vessels to 0-6 ships, per IMF Portwatch and Windward data, as Tehran selectively permits allied vessels from China, India, and Pakistan while blocking Western ships and charging multimillion-dollar tolls. Polymarket traders reflect this in market-implied odds of just 5% for 20+ transits on any March day, with even lower for higher bins, backed by $579K volume. Brent crude surged to $91/bbl amid 20% global oil supply risks, war risk premiums up 50x normal, and tanker charters quadrupled; bilateral deals offer minor upticks, but March 31 data release remains the key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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