Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Google at 74% implied probability to hold the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro's rapid ascent to third place on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its late-March release, which showcased superior multimodal capabilities and long-context handling exceeding 1 million tokens. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants continue dominating the top two spots with elite reasoning benchmarks, solidifying their lead and positioning Gemini as the clear third in the crowded frontier. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags in sixth, while xAI's Grok-4.20 sits seventh, explaining their low odds; however, looming April releases like potential GPT-5.5 or DeepSeek V4 could disrupt rankings before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGoogle 74%
Anthropic 21%
OpenAI 2.7%
DeepSeek 1.1%
$129,127 Vol.
$129,127 Vol.

74%

Anthropic
21%

OpenAI
3%

DeepSeek
1%

xAI
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Google 74%
Anthropic 21%
OpenAI 2.7%
DeepSeek 1.1%
$129,127 Vol.
$129,127 Vol.

74%

Anthropic
21%

OpenAI
3%

DeepSeek
1%

xAI
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Google at 74% implied probability to hold the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro's rapid ascent to third place on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its late-March release, which showcased superior multimodal capabilities and long-context handling exceeding 1 million tokens. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants continue dominating the top two spots with elite reasoning benchmarks, solidifying their lead and positioning Gemini as the clear third in the crowded frontier. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags in sixth, while xAI's Grok-4.20 sits seventh, explaining their low odds; however, looming April releases like potential GPT-5.5 or DeepSeek V4 could disrupt rankings before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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