Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by end of April 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's persistent #2 ranking on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by just a few Elo points as of late March. Released in early February, Claude Opus 4.6 has demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and low hallucination rates in recent benchmarks, solidifying its competitive edge over OpenAI's GPT-5 series and xAI's Grok 4.20. With no major model launches confirmed from rivals before April 30—despite rumors of OpenAI updates or Anthropic's potential Claude 5 preview—traders anticipate stability, though a surprise Gemini upgrade or Chinese contender like Alibaba's Qwen could shift dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnthropic 88%
Google 6%
OpenAI 3.6%
Alibaba 1.9%
$17,285 Vol.
$17,285 Vol.

Anthropic
88%

6%

OpenAI
4%

Alibaba
2%

xAI
2%

ByteDance
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 88%
Google 6%
OpenAI 3.6%
Alibaba 1.9%
$17,285 Vol.
$17,285 Vol.

Anthropic
88%

6%

OpenAI
4%

Alibaba
2%

xAI
2%

ByteDance
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by end of April 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's persistent #2 ranking on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by just a few Elo points as of late March. Released in early February, Claude Opus 4.6 has demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and low hallucination rates in recent benchmarks, solidifying its competitive edge over OpenAI's GPT-5 series and xAI's Grok 4.20. With no major model launches confirmed from rivals before April 30—despite rumors of OpenAI updates or Anthropic's potential Claude 5 preview—traders anticipate stability, though a surprise Gemini upgrade or Chinese contender like Alibaba's Qwen could shift dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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