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Klima & Wissenschaft·Wissenschaft

Wo wird 2026 zu den heißesten Jahren seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen gehören?

Market icon
Klima & Wissenschaft·Wissenschaft

Wo wird 2026 zu den heißesten Jahren seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen gehören?

2 46%

Gruppeneintrag-Titel: 1 28%

4 16%

3 9.2%

Polymarket

$2,401,440 Vol.

2 46%

Gruppeneintrag-Titel: 1 28%

4 16%

3 9.2%

Polymarket

$2,401,440 Vol.

Gruppeneintrag-Titel: 1

$333,019 Vol.

28%

2

$244,444 Vol.

46%

3

$368,711 Vol.

9%

4

$359,971 Vol.

16%

5

$662,972 Vol.

1%

6 oder weniger

$432,323 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% chance that 2026 ranks 1st or 2nd hottest on record, with 2nd leading at 45.5%, reflecting NOAA and Copernicus confirmations that 2024 holds as the warmest year, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third-warmest at ~1.17–1.19°C above 20th-century averages). Early 2026 data shows January and February as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus, with Berkeley Earth ranking February second-warmest, amid lingering La Niña cooling. However, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June–August, potentially surging ocean-driven heat through boreal summer and fall, elevating full-year prospects despite baseline anthropogenic warming trends of ~0.2°C per decade and inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving ENSO and atmospheric patterns. Upcoming March data and quarterly updates from NOAA will refine trajectories.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,401,440
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% chance that 2026 ranks 1st or 2nd hottest on record, with 2nd leading at 45.5%, reflecting NOAA and Copernicus confirmations that 2024 holds as the warmest year, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third-warmest at ~1.17–1.19°C above 20th-century averages). Early 2026 data shows January and February as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus, with Berkeley Earth ranking February second-warmest, amid lingering La Niña cooling. However, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June–August, potentially surging ocean-driven heat through boreal summer and fall, elevating full-year prospects despite baseline anthropogenic warming trends of ~0.2°C per decade and inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving ENSO and atmospheric patterns. Upcoming March data and quarterly updates from NOAA will refine trajectories.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,401,440
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wo wird 2026 zu den heißesten Jahren seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen gehören?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „2" mit 46%, gefolgt von „Gruppeneintrag-Titel: 1" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 46¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 46% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wo wird 2026 zu den heißesten Jahren seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen gehören?" ist „2" mit 46%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 46% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Gruppeneintrag-Titel: 1" mit 28%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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