Tom Sell's commanding 96.5% implied probability in the TX-19 Republican primary runoff reflects his strong first-round performance on March 3, where he led a crowded seven-candidate field without reaching a majority, advancing alongside Abraham Enriquez for the May 26 contest to replace retiring incumbent Jodey Arrington. A recent Harper Polling survey (April 7-8) showed Sell leading 57%-17%, bolstering trader consensus amid his endorsements from state Representative Carl Tepper, former primary rivals, and Veterans for America First, plus grassroots momentum in this rural West Texas district emphasizing agriculture and energy. Enriquez trails despite Trump alignment, with low runoff turnout historically favoring established locals like Sell. Upsets could arise from scandals, Enriquez fundraising surges, or unexpected Trump voter mobilization, though barriers remain high.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertTom Sell 96.5%
Abraham Enriquez 3.5%
Matthew Smith <1%
James Barbee <1%
$72,222 Vol.
$72,222 Vol.
Tom Sell
97%
Abraham Enriquez
3%
Matthew Smith
<1%
James Barbee
<1%
Ryan Zink
<1%
Jason Corley
<1%
Donald May
<1%
Tom Sell 96.5%
Abraham Enriquez 3.5%
Matthew Smith <1%
James Barbee <1%
$72,222 Vol.
$72,222 Vol.
Tom Sell
97%
Abraham Enriquez
3%
Matthew Smith
<1%
James Barbee
<1%
Ryan Zink
<1%
Jason Corley
<1%
Donald May
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Sell's commanding 96.5% implied probability in the TX-19 Republican primary runoff reflects his strong first-round performance on March 3, where he led a crowded seven-candidate field without reaching a majority, advancing alongside Abraham Enriquez for the May 26 contest to replace retiring incumbent Jodey Arrington. A recent Harper Polling survey (April 7-8) showed Sell leading 57%-17%, bolstering trader consensus amid his endorsements from state Representative Carl Tepper, former primary rivals, and Veterans for America First, plus grassroots momentum in this rural West Texas district emphasizing agriculture and energy. Enriquez trails despite Trump alignment, with low runoff turnout historically favoring established locals like Sell. Upsets could arise from scandals, Enriquez fundraising surges, or unexpected Trump voter mobilization, though barriers remain high.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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