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Geopolitik·Mittlerer Osten

Military action against Iran ends by...?

Market icon
Geopolitik·Mittlerer Osten

Military action against Iran ends by...?

Apr. 30

Juni 30

Apr. 30

Juni 30

$63,059 Vol.

30. Apr. 2026
Polymarket

$63,059 Vol.

Polymarket

April 3

$6,268 Vol.

<1%

April 4

$1,902 Vol.

1%

April 5

$1,195 Vol.

2%

April 6

$33 Vol.

5%

April 7

$50 Vol.

10%

April 8

$1 Vol.

16%

April 9

$2,790 Vol.

19%

April 10

$0 Vol.

14%

April 11

$10 Vol.

41%

April 12

$0 Vol.

28%

April 13

$0 Vol.

22%

April 14

$4,614 Vol.

18%

April 15

$159 Vol.

12%

April 16

$0 Vol.

37%

April 17

$0 Vol.

30%

April 18

$0 Vol.

44%

April 19

$0 Vol.

44%

April 20

$0 Vol.

44%

April 21

$0 Vol.

44%

April 22

$0 Vol.

44%

April 23

$0 Vol.

44%

April 24

$0 Vol.

45%

April 25

$2,777 Vol.

30%

April 26

$0 Vol.

44%

April 27

$38 Vol.

44%

April 28

$0 Vol.

44%

April 29

$0 Vol.

44%

April 30

$21,567 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces maintain near-daily airstrikes on Iranian soil—now in the fifth week since the February 28, 2026, opening strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—targeting IRGC command posts, ballistic missile facilities, defense industries, and infrastructure like bridges and steel plants. On April 3, CENTCOM released footage of recent hits on drones, tanks, and missile launchers, even as Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states including Kuwaiti refineries. No full calendar day without qualifying US or Israeli aerial action has passed, per market rules, fueling trader consensus for prolonged engagement. The Pentagon prepares limited ground operations, possibly on Kharg Island to secure the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump signals 2-3 more weeks of intense strikes absent diplomatic breakthroughs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$63,059
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces maintain near-daily airstrikes on Iranian soil—now in the fifth week since the February 28, 2026, opening strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—targeting IRGC command posts, ballistic missile facilities, defense industries, and infrastructure like bridges and steel plants. On April 3, CENTCOM released footage of recent hits on drones, tanks, and missile launchers, even as Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states including Kuwaiti refineries. No full calendar day without qualifying US or Israeli aerial action has passed, per market rules, fueling trader consensus for prolonged engagement. The Pentagon prepares limited ground operations, possibly on Kharg Island to secure the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump signals 2-3 more weeks of intense strikes absent diplomatic breakthroughs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$63,059
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Military action against Iran ends by...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 30 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „April 24" mit 45%, gefolgt von „April 18" mit 44%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 45¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Military action against Iran ends by...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $63.1K generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 27, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Military action against Iran ends by...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 30 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Military action against Iran ends by...?" ist „April 24" mit 45%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „April 18" mit 44%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Military action against Iran ends by...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.