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Geopolitik·Mittlerer Osten

Military action against Iran ends by...?

Market icon
Geopolitik·Mittlerer Osten

Military action against Iran ends by...?

Apr. 30

Juni 30

Apr. 30

Juni 30

$80,869 Vol.

30. Apr. 2026
Polymarket

$80,869 Vol.

Polymarket

April 5

$2,161 Vol.

1%

April 6

$6,943 Vol.

<1%

April 7

$968 Vol.

2%

April 8

$244 Vol.

2%

April 9

$2,904 Vol.

2%

April 10

$20 Vol.

4%

April 11

$25 Vol.

5%

April 12

$7 Vol.

6%

April 13

$0 Vol.

7%

April 14

$4,755 Vol.

8%

April 15

$180 Vol.

9%

April 16

$0 Vol.

36%

April 17

$0 Vol.

43%

April 18

$54 Vol.

42%

April 19

$1 Vol.

45%

April 20

$0 Vol.

45%

April 21

$0 Vol.

43%

April 22

$0 Vol.

43%

April 23

$0 Vol.

44%

April 24

$0 Vol.

44%

April 25

$3,013 Vol.

21%

April 26

$0 Vol.

44%

April 27

$49 Vol.

45%

April 28

$0 Vol.

44%

April 29

$1 Vol.

43%

April 30

$24,404 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including petrochemical sites and universities, continued on April 4 amid the sixth week of conflict that began February 28 with nearly 900 initial strikes targeting missiles and air defenses. Iranian forces downed a US F-15E fighter jet and A-10 on April 3, prompting a successful special forces rescue of the missing airman on April 5, while Bahrain intercepted hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on April 4 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential escalation, though no ceasefire negotiations are underway and Iranian retaliation persists despite degraded capabilities. Traders weigh operational progress against resilient Iranian drone strikes and leadership continuity, with no firm end date announced.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$80,869
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including petrochemical sites and universities, continued on April 4 amid the sixth week of conflict that began February 28 with nearly 900 initial strikes targeting missiles and air defenses. Iranian forces downed a US F-15E fighter jet and A-10 on April 3, prompting a successful special forces rescue of the missing airman on April 5, while Bahrain intercepted hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on April 4 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential escalation, though no ceasefire negotiations are underway and Iranian retaliation persists despite degraded capabilities. Traders weigh operational progress against resilient Iranian drone strikes and leadership continuity, with no firm end date announced.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$80,869
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Military action against Iran ends by...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 30 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „April 19" mit 45%, gefolgt von „April 20" mit 45%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 45¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Military action against Iran ends by...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $80.9K generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 27, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Military action against Iran ends by...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 30 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Military action against Iran ends by...?" ist „April 19" mit 45%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „April 20" mit 45%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Military action against Iran ends by...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.