Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026 to pursue regime change and Kurdish self-determination through local democratic administration in majority-Kurdish areas, explicitly framing their goals within a post-regime Iranian state rather than immediate secession. No group has issued a formal declaration of independence or asserted governing authority over Iranian territory, consistent with their public emphasis on autonomy or federal arrangements amid ongoing protests, limited insurgency, and external conflict dynamics. Traders assign 98.1% probability to No largely because these groups lack the territorial control or unified intent for such a step before the June 30, 2026 resolution date. A sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or rapid military gains enabling an explicit sovereignty claim remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.