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Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Market icon
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 59.5%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Hassan Rouhani 5.8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.5%

Polymarket

$5,940,307 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 59.5%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Hassan Rouhani 5.8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.5%

Polymarket

$5,940,307 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,220,173 Vol.

60%

Reza Pahlavi

$128,576 Vol.

9%

Hassan Rouhani

$266,672 Vol.

6%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$161,665 Vol.

5%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$238,928 Vol.

4%

Kein Staatschef

$364,182 Vol.

3%

Hassan Khomeini

$668,999 Vol.

2%

Abbas Araghchi

$92,613 Vol.

1%

Sadegh Larijani

$171,731 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$770,698 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$238,592 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$190,957 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$267,683 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$228,182 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$73,462 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$51,559 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$41,230 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$145,160 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$20,092 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$30,738 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$25,131 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$16,923 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$45,196 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$32,933 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$63,225 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$45,230 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$45,996 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$25,870 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$12,817 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$18,676 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 60% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes, bolstered by his longstanding influence in the IRGC and Basij forces amid ongoing conflict. Recent Foreign Ministry statements and a March 20 video confirming his health have countered coma and injury rumors from mid-March airstrikes, sustaining his lead despite uncertainty. Reza Pahlavi trails at 8.5% on speculation of regime collapse or opposition surge, while reformists like Hassan Rouhani and Masoud Pezeshkian linger below 6% absent institutional support. No major developments in the past week alter the post-succession status quo, with traders pricing continuity risks from escalation or internal power struggles.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$5,940,307
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 60% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes, bolstered by his longstanding influence in the IRGC and Basij forces amid ongoing conflict. Recent Foreign Ministry statements and a March 20 video confirming his health have countered coma and injury rumors from mid-March airstrikes, sustaining his lead despite uncertainty. Reza Pahlavi trails at 8.5% on speculation of regime collapse or opposition surge, while reformists like Hassan Rouhani and Masoud Pezeshkian linger below 6% absent institutional support. No major developments in the past week alter the post-succession status quo, with traders pricing continuity risks from escalation or internal power struggles.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$5,940,307
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 60%, gefolgt von „Reza Pahlavi" mit 9%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 60¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 60% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $5.9 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 1, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 60%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 60% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Reza Pahlavi" mit 9%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.