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Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Market icon
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 47.3%

Reza Pahlavi 13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.8%

Kein Staatschef 5.8%

Polymarket

$5,401,983 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 47.3%

Reza Pahlavi 13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.8%

Kein Staatschef 5.8%

Polymarket

$5,401,983 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$932,375 Vol.

47%

Reza Pahlavi

$120,017 Vol.

13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$47,672 Vol.

7%

Kein Staatschef

$357,239 Vol.

6%

Hassan Khomeini

$640,587 Vol.

5%

Alireza Arafi

$767,853 Vol.

5%

Hassan Rouhani

$250,077 Vol.

3%

Sadegh Larijani

$168,359 Vol.

3%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$44,140 Vol.

1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$70,561 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$230,923 Vol.

1%

Nasir Hosseini

$10,541 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$236,126 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$221,593 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$87,048 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$140,598 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$186,452 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$265,709 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$42,973 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$56,345 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$24,010 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$28,953 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$49,573 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$43,680 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$38,167 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$14,697 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$18,620 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$23,826 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$15,471 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$30,941 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's 48% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 stems from his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following father Ali Khamenei's death in a February 28 Israeli airstrike, with IRGC backing and Tehran rallies signaling regime consolidation amid US-Israel escalation. Recent written statements, including a March 20 Nowruz message rejecting ceasefires, affirm his role despite health rumors from reported strike wounds, limited appearances, and Pentagon speculation fueling trader caution below 50%. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% reflects ongoing 2025-2026 protests and opposition pitches for democratic transition, while Ghalibaf and others lag amid uncertainty over internal dissent, economic woes, and potential no-confidence challenges before year-end.

Mojtaba Khamenei's 48% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 stems from his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following father Ali Khamenei's death in a February 28 Israeli airstrike, with IRGC backing and Tehran rallies signaling regime consolidation amid US-Israel escalation. Recent written statements, including a March 20 Nowruz message rejecting ceasefires, affirm his role despite health rumors from reported strike wounds, limited appearances, and Pentagon speculation fueling trader caution below 50%. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% reflects ongoing 2025-2026 protests and opposition pitches for democratic transition, while Ghalibaf and others lag amid uncertainty over internal dissent, economic woes, and potential no-confidence challenges before year-end.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's 48% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 stems from his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following father Ali Khamenei's death in a February 28 Israeli airstrike, with IRGC backing and Tehran rallies signaling regime consolidation amid US-Israel escalation. Recent written statements, including a March 20 Nowruz message rejecting ceasefires, affirm his role despite health rumors from reported strike wounds, limited appearances, and Pentagon speculation fueling trader caution below 50%. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% reflects ongoing 2025-2026 protests and opposition pitches for democratic transition, while Ghalibaf and others lag amid uncertainty over internal dissent, economic woes, and potential no-confidence challenges before year-end.

Mojtaba Khamenei's 48% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 stems from his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following father Ali Khamenei's death in a February 28 Israeli airstrike, with IRGC backing and Tehran rallies signaling regime consolidation amid US-Israel escalation. Recent written statements, including a March 20 Nowruz message rejecting ceasefires, affirm his role despite health rumors from reported strike wounds, limited appearances, and Pentagon speculation fueling trader caution below 50%. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% reflects ongoing 2025-2026 protests and opposition pitches for democratic transition, while Ghalibaf and others lag amid uncertainty over internal dissent, economic woes, and potential no-confidence challenges before year-end.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 47%, gefolgt von „Reza Pahlavi" mit 13%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 47¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 47% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $5.4 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 1, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 47%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 47% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Reza Pahlavi" mit 13%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.