Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, at 96.5%, driven by the complete halt in verified Iranian attacks on merchant vessels since March 12 amid Operation Epic Fury's devastating strikes on IRGC Navy assets. Coalition airstrikes destroyed 92% of Iran's large surface vessels, culminating in the March 26 elimination of IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri in Bandar Abbas, severely curtailing power projection in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. Maritime traffic has rebounded with dozens of vessels transiting unimpeded recently, underscoring de-escalation. Late-breaking drone strikes, mines, or unreported proxy actions could challenge this, but the three-day window limits feasibility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHow many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
<5 96.4%
5–7 1.4%
8–10 1.0%
20+ <1%
$61,509 Vol.
$61,509 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
96%
5–7
1%
8–10
1%
11–13
1%
14–16
<1%
17–19
<1%
20+
1%
<5 96.4%
5–7 1.4%
8–10 1.0%
20+ <1%
$61,509 Vol.
$61,509 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
$22,092 Vol.
96%
5–7
$5,844 Vol.
1%
8–10
$7,154 Vol.
1%
11–13
$2,995 Vol.
1%
14–16
$5,228 Vol.
<1%
17–19
$2,864 Vol.
<1%
20+
$15,332 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, at 96.5%, driven by the complete halt in verified Iranian attacks on merchant vessels since March 12 amid Operation Epic Fury's devastating strikes on IRGC Navy assets. Coalition airstrikes destroyed 92% of Iran's large surface vessels, culminating in the March 26 elimination of IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri in Bandar Abbas, severely curtailing power projection in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. Maritime traffic has rebounded with dozens of vessels transiting unimpeded recently, underscoring de-escalation. Late-breaking drone strikes, mines, or unreported proxy actions could challenge this, but the three-day window limits feasibility.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volumen
$61,509Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, at 96.5%, driven by the complete halt in verified Iranian attacks on merchant vessels since March 12 amid Operation Epic Fury's devastating strikes on IRGC Navy assets. Coalition airstrikes destroyed 92% of Iran's large surface vessels, culminating in the March 26 elimination of IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri in Bandar Abbas, severely curtailing power projection in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. Maritime traffic has rebounded with dozens of vessels transiting unimpeded recently, underscoring de-escalation. Late-breaking drone strikes, mines, or unreported proxy actions could challenge this, but the three-day window limits feasibility.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$61,509Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, at 96.5%, driven by the complete halt in verified Iranian attacks on merchant vessels since March 12 amid Operation Epic Fury's devastating strikes on IRGC Navy assets. Coalition airstrikes destroyed 92% of Iran's large surface vessels, culminating in the March 26 elimination of IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri in Bandar Abbas, severely curtailing power projection in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. Maritime traffic has rebounded with dozens of vessels transiting unimpeded recently, underscoring de-escalation. Late-breaking drone strikes, mines, or unreported proxy actions could challenge this, but the three-day window limits feasibility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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