Incumbent Republican María Elvira Salazar leads the FL-27 House race with a 62.5% implied probability, reflecting her substantial fundraising edge, name recognition as a former journalist, and the district’s R+6 partisan lean. Recent internal polling shows the contest tightening to a near tie or slight Rodriguez advantage after candidate descriptions, driven by Hispanic voter backlash against Trump administration immigration enforcement and 54% disapproval of the president in the heavily Latino Miami-Dade district. Salazar’s campaign ad criticizing mass deportations and ICE practices has highlighted her break with Trump on the issue, while Rodriguez, a longtime local CBS anchor and Democratic nominee, emphasizes affordability, congressional oversight, and voter familiarity. Cook Political Report rates the seat Lean Republican following these shifts, with early voting beginning in late October ahead of the November 3 general election.