**Hawkish revisions in the September 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range anchor trader sentiment for the remaining 2026 meetings.** Elevated inflation projections—headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.4% for year-end—combined with upgraded GDP growth and a lower 4.1% unemployment forecast prompted 16 of 18 participants to project at least one additional hike by December, lifting the median dot to 4.1%. Recent August CPI data showing a modest 3.4% year-over-year rise provided limited relief, while solid labor-market readings reinforced the case for further tightening. Market-implied pricing, with the leading Hike–Pause–Hike path at 44.5%, reflects uncertainty over October versus December timing amid resilient activity and the Fed’s emphasis on returning inflation to target. Upcoming October 28 and December 9 decisions, alongside any fresh inflation or employment releases, remain key swing factors.