Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE projections near 3.3% for 2026, alongside a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August job gains and 4.1% unemployment, underpins the near-even implied probabilities for no change (47.5%) versus a 25 basis point hike (43.5%) at the December FOMC. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent data revisions have shifted market-implied odds toward tighter policy, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts. The August jobs report and supply-side pressures from prior energy shocks further support this balance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which will clarify the near-term rate path before December resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 5.4%
50+ bps increase 2.3%
$568,425 Vol.
$568,425 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
Keine Änderung
48%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
2%
Keine Änderung 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 5.4%
50+ bps increase 2.3%
$568,425 Vol.
$568,425 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$92,643 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$144,128 Vol.
5%
Keine Änderung
$101,362 Vol.
48%
25 bps increase
$139,605 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$90,687 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE projections near 3.3% for 2026, alongside a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August job gains and 4.1% unemployment, underpins the near-even implied probabilities for no change (47.5%) versus a 25 basis point hike (43.5%) at the December FOMC. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent data revisions have shifted market-implied odds toward tighter policy, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts. The August jobs report and supply-side pressures from prior energy shocks further support this balance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which will clarify the near-term rate path before December resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volumen
$568,425Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE projections near 3.3% for 2026, alongside a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August job gains and 4.1% unemployment, underpins the near-even implied probabilities for no change (47.5%) versus a 25 basis point hike (43.5%) at the December FOMC. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent data revisions have shifted market-implied odds toward tighter policy, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts. The August jobs report and supply-side pressures from prior energy shocks further support this balance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which will clarify the near-term rate path before December resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$568,425Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE projections near 3.3% for 2026, alongside a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August job gains and 4.1% unemployment, underpins the near-even implied probabilities for no change (47.5%) versus a 25 basis point hike (43.5%) at the December FOMC. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent data revisions have shifted market-implied odds toward tighter policy, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts. The August jobs report and supply-side pressures from prior energy shocks further support this balance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which will clarify the near-term rate path before December resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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