Recent Fed communications and September's 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have left traders focused on the timing and extent of any additional tightening through early 2027. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3% and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1% support expectations for at least one more increase, yet officials including Williams and Jefferson have signaled no urgency for an October move, shifting odds toward a December hike instead. This data dependence creates tight competition between sequences featuring a single late-2026 adjustment versus two, with upcoming September employment and CPI releases, plus the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, likely to clarify whether policy pauses after one hike or extends further amid sticky price pressures.