Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly risks to Strait of Hormuz shipping, have driven a sharp rally in WTI crude oil, with front-month futures surging over 11% to above $110/bbl in early April 2026, positioning June contract settlement (CLM26) near $90-97/bbl and implying 68% trader consensus for >$84. This risk premium overshadows the latest EIA data showing a 5.5 million barrel inventory build to 461.6 million barrels (week ended March 27), while OPEC maintains 2026 global demand growth at 1.4 million b/d. Futures curve reflects elevated supply disruption fears, though easing tensions or robust U.S. output could pressure prices toward $80/bbl ahead of summer driving season and next EIA release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
Worauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 68%
$77-$84 14%
70–77 $ 7.1%
$63-$70 5.3%
$100,638 Vol.
$100,638 Vol.
< $42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
3%
$63-$70
5%
70–77 $
7%
$77-$84
14%
>$84
68%
>$84 68%
$77-$84 14%
70–77 $ 7.1%
$63-$70 5.3%
$100,638 Vol.
$100,638 Vol.
< $42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
3%
$63-$70
5%
70–77 $
7%
$77-$84
14%
>$84
68%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly risks to Strait of Hormuz shipping, have driven a sharp rally in WTI crude oil, with front-month futures surging over 11% to above $110/bbl in early April 2026, positioning June contract settlement (CLM26) near $90-97/bbl and implying 68% trader consensus for >$84. This risk premium overshadows the latest EIA data showing a 5.5 million barrel inventory build to 461.6 million barrels (week ended March 27), while OPEC maintains 2026 global demand growth at 1.4 million b/d. Futures curve reflects elevated supply disruption fears, though easing tensions or robust U.S. output could pressure prices toward $80/bbl ahead of summer driving season and next EIA release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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