Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, represent the dominant driver behind the 68% market-implied odds on Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June. These disruptions have triggered sharp inventory draws of roughly 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining WTI futures near $97 per barrel as of late May amid elevated refining margins. Trader consensus, reflected in real-money positioning, incorporates the potential for gradual flow resumption later in the month while pricing in continued tightness relative to pre-conflict levels. Key upcoming catalysts include any progress on de-escalation talks and the pace of Atlantic Basin supply offsets, which could influence final settlement levels.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
Worauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 68%
$77-$84 17%
70–77 $ 5.8%
$63-$70 1.0%
$194,106 Vol.
$194,106 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
1%
70–77 $
6%
$77-$84
17%
>$84
68%
>$84 68%
$77-$84 17%
70–77 $ 5.8%
$63-$70 1.0%
$194,106 Vol.
$194,106 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
< $42
$20,386 Vol.
<1%
$42-$49
$9,599 Vol.
<1%
$49-$56
$11,396 Vol.
1%
$56-$63
$10,901 Vol.
1%
$63-$70
$25,069 Vol.
1%
70–77 $
$15,345 Vol.
6%
$77-$84
$16,780 Vol.
17%
>$84
$84,631 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, represent the dominant driver behind the 68% market-implied odds on Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June. These disruptions have triggered sharp inventory draws of roughly 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining WTI futures near $97 per barrel as of late May amid elevated refining margins. Trader consensus, reflected in real-money positioning, incorporates the potential for gradual flow resumption later in the month while pricing in continued tightness relative to pre-conflict levels. Key upcoming catalysts include any progress on de-escalation talks and the pace of Atlantic Basin supply offsets, which could influence final settlement levels.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volumen
$194,106Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, represent the dominant driver behind the 68% market-implied odds on Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June. These disruptions have triggered sharp inventory draws of roughly 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining WTI futures near $97 per barrel as of late May amid elevated refining margins. Trader consensus, reflected in real-money positioning, incorporates the potential for gradual flow resumption later in the month while pricing in continued tightness relative to pre-conflict levels. Key upcoming catalysts include any progress on de-escalation talks and the pace of Atlantic Basin supply offsets, which could influence final settlement levels.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volumen
$194,106Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, represent the dominant driver behind the 68% market-implied odds on Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June. These disruptions have triggered sharp inventory draws of roughly 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining WTI futures near $97 per barrel as of late May amid elevated refining margins. Trader consensus, reflected in real-money positioning, incorporates the potential for gradual flow resumption later in the month while pricing in continued tightness relative to pre-conflict levels. Key upcoming catalysts include any progress on de-escalation talks and the pace of Atlantic Basin supply offsets, which could influence final settlement levels.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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