Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, with a 96.7% implied probability, driven by the AI developer's recent $30 billion Series G funding round in February at a $380 billion private valuation, eliminating near-term public market pressure amid fierce competition with OpenAI and Google DeepMind. Reports from The Information and WSJ indicate executives are discussing a potential Q4 2026 debut—possibly October—targeting over $60 billion in proceeds, but no S-1 filing or official announcements signal H1 action, reinforcing caution in this capital-intensive large language model race. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected regulatory shifts favoring earlier listings or accelerated Claude model milestones prompting a surprise filing, though historical AI IPO timelines suggest delays remain likely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertKein Börsengang bis zum 30. Juni 2026 96.5%
600 Mrd.+ 1.8%
100–200 Mrd. <1%
300–400 Mrd. <1%
$915,939 Vol.
$915,939 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
<100 Mrd. $
<1%
100–200 Mrd.
<1%
200–300 Mrd.
<1%
300–400 Mrd.
<1%
400–600 Mrd.
<1%
600 Mrd.+
2%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 30. Juni 2026
97%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 30. Juni 2026 96.5%
600 Mrd.+ 1.8%
100–200 Mrd. <1%
300–400 Mrd. <1%
$915,939 Vol.
$915,939 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
<100 Mrd. $
$190,723 Vol.
<1%
100–200 Mrd.
$63,218 Vol.
<1%
200–300 Mrd.
$118,613 Vol.
<1%
300–400 Mrd.
$60,326 Vol.
<1%
400–600 Mrd.
$91,380 Vol.
<1%
600 Mrd.+
$231,286 Vol.
2%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 30. Juni 2026
$160,392 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, with a 96.7% implied probability, driven by the AI developer's recent $30 billion Series G funding round in February at a $380 billion private valuation, eliminating near-term public market pressure amid fierce competition with OpenAI and Google DeepMind. Reports from The Information and WSJ indicate executives are discussing a potential Q4 2026 debut—possibly October—targeting over $60 billion in proceeds, but no S-1 filing or official announcements signal H1 action, reinforcing caution in this capital-intensive large language model race. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected regulatory shifts favoring earlier listings or accelerated Claude model milestones prompting a surprise filing, though historical AI IPO timelines suggest delays remain likely.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$915,939Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, with a 96.7% implied probability, driven by the AI developer's recent $30 billion Series G funding round in February at a $380 billion private valuation, eliminating near-term public market pressure amid fierce competition with OpenAI and Google DeepMind. Reports from The Information and WSJ indicate executives are discussing a potential Q4 2026 debut—possibly October—targeting over $60 billion in proceeds, but no S-1 filing or official announcements signal H1 action, reinforcing caution in this capital-intensive large language model race. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected regulatory shifts favoring earlier listings or accelerated Claude model milestones prompting a surprise filing, though historical AI IPO timelines suggest delays remain likely.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$915,939Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, with a 96.7% implied probability, driven by the AI developer's recent $30 billion Series G funding round in February at a $380 billion private valuation, eliminating near-term public market pressure amid fierce competition with OpenAI and Google DeepMind. Reports from The Information and WSJ indicate executives are discussing a potential Q4 2026 debut—possibly October—targeting over $60 billion in proceeds, but no S-1 filing or official announcements signal H1 action, reinforcing caution in this capital-intensive large language model race. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected regulatory shifts favoring earlier listings or accelerated Claude model milestones prompting a surprise filing, though historical AI IPO timelines suggest delays remain likely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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