Recent June CPI data, featuring a larger-than-expected 0.4% monthly decline driven by easing energy prices after geopolitical de-escalation, has shaped expectations for July, with Cleveland Fed nowcasts projecting a modest 0.09% headline MoM rise alongside 0.21% core. Market-implied odds heavily favor outcomes at or above 0.0%, reflecting trader assessments of persistent shelter costs and services inflation tempered by goods stabilization, against a backdrop of 3.5% June year-over-year inflation. With the August 12 release approaching, incoming retail sales, labor metrics, and any residual energy volatility represent key variables that could shift probabilities ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics print.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert≥0,1 % 61%
0,0 % 36%
-0,1 % 5.3%
≤-0,7 % 1.3%
$165,311 Vol.
$165,311 Vol.
≤-0,7 %
1%
-0,6 %
<1%
-0,5 %
<1%
-0,4 %
<1%
-0,3 %
<1%
-0,2 %
<1%
-0,1 %
5%
0,0 %
36%
≥0,1 %
61%
≥0,1 % 61%
0,0 % 36%
-0,1 % 5.3%
≤-0,7 % 1.3%
$165,311 Vol.
$165,311 Vol.
≤-0,7 %
1%
-0,6 %
<1%
-0,5 %
<1%
-0,4 %
<1%
-0,3 %
<1%
-0,2 %
<1%
-0,1 %
5%
0,0 %
36%
≥0,1 %
61%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June CPI data, featuring a larger-than-expected 0.4% monthly decline driven by easing energy prices after geopolitical de-escalation, has shaped expectations for July, with Cleveland Fed nowcasts projecting a modest 0.09% headline MoM rise alongside 0.21% core. Market-implied odds heavily favor outcomes at or above 0.0%, reflecting trader assessments of persistent shelter costs and services inflation tempered by goods stabilization, against a backdrop of 3.5% June year-over-year inflation. With the August 12 release approaching, incoming retail sales, labor metrics, and any residual energy volatility represent key variables that could shift probabilities ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics print.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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