richardd

Joined Aug 2024·1.7K views

$11.4K

Positions Value

$1,070.64

Biggest Win

4,027

Predictions

Profit/Loss

$77.43

Past Day

Current

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

No 50¢

8,000.0 shares

50¢

75.4¢

$6,028.00$2,028.00 (50.7%)

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

No 50¢

8,000.0 shares

$6,028.00$2,028.00 (50.7%)

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 49.5¢

8,000.0 shares

49.5¢

24.7¢

$1,972.00-$1,986.62 (-50.18%)

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 49.5¢

8,000.0 shares

$1,972.00-$1,986.62 (-50.18%)

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 5.5¢

20,000.2 shares

5.5¢

4.5¢

$890.01-$212.02 (-19.24%)

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 5.5¢

20,000.2 shares

$890.01-$212.02 (-19.24%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

Yes 72¢

952.2 shares

72¢

74.5¢

$709.36$23.64 (3.45%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

Yes 72¢

952.2 shares

$709.36$23.64 (3.45%)

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 20¢

1,100.0 shares

20¢

25.1¢

$276.09$56.40 (25.67%)

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 20¢

1,100.0 shares

$276.09$56.40 (25.67%)

Will ADI win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?

Yes 63.9¢

220.0 shares

63.9¢

88¢

$193.57$52.99 (37.7%)

Will ADI win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?

Yes 63.9¢

220.0 shares

$193.57$52.99 (37.7%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?

Yes 39.8¢

527.1 shares

39.8¢

33¢

$173.95-$35.87 (-17.1%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?

Yes 39.8¢

527.1 shares

$173.95-$35.87 (-17.1%)

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?

Yes 36.2¢

355.4 shares

36.2¢

44.5¢

$158.17$29.44 (22.87%)

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?

Yes 36.2¢

355.4 shares

$158.17$29.44 (22.87%)

Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 38.3¢

401.0 shares

38.3¢

39¢

$156.39$2.96 (1.93%)

Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 38.3¢

401.0 shares

$156.39$2.96 (1.93%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Yes 65.6¢

201.8 shares

65.6¢

63.5¢

$128.12-$4.17 (-3.15%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Yes 65.6¢

201.8 shares

$128.12-$4.17 (-3.15%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30?

Yes 61.1¢

152.6 shares

61.1¢

61.5¢

$93.84$0.62 (0.66%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30?

Yes 61.1¢

152.6 shares

$93.84$0.62 (0.66%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?

No 82¢

107.7 shares

82¢

84.5¢

$91.02$2.69 (3.05%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?

No 82¢

107.7 shares

$91.02$2.69 (3.05%)

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?

No 90¢

100.0 shares

90¢

88¢

$88.00-$2.00 (-2.22%)

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?

No 90¢

100.0 shares

$88.00-$2.00 (-2.22%)

Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?

Yes 87¢

100.0 shares

87¢

87.5¢

$87.50$0.50 (0.57%)

Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?

Yes 87¢

100.0 shares

$87.50$0.50 (0.57%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 72.2¢

95.2 shares

72.2¢

70¢

$66.63-$2.07 (-3.02%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 72.2¢

95.2 shares

$66.63-$2.07 (-3.02%)

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?

Yes 33¢

150.0 shares

33¢

30.5¢

$45.75-$3.75 (-7.58%)

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?

Yes 33¢

150.0 shares

$45.75-$3.75 (-7.58%)

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

No 4.4¢

417.0 shares

4.4¢

5.4¢

$22.31$4.10 (22.49%)

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

No 4.4¢

417.0 shares

$22.31$4.10 (22.49%)

Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 17.1¢

119.3 shares

17.1¢

18¢

$21.41$1.04 (5.1%)

Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 17.1¢

119.3 shares

$21.41$1.04 (5.1%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 1.1¢

387.3 shares

1.1¢

5.4¢

$20.72$16.40 (379.78%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 1.1¢

387.3 shares

$20.72$16.40 (379.78%)

Will New People (NL) win 85 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

No 96¢

20.0 shares

96¢

99.7¢

$19.93$0.73 (3.8%)

Will New People (NL) win 85 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

No 96¢

20.0 shares

$19.93$0.73 (3.8%)