richardd

Joined Aug 2024·1.8K views

$9,529.59

Positions Value

$1,070.64

Biggest Win

4,055

Predictions

Profit/Loss

-$300.32

Past Day

Current

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

No 50¢

7,000.0 shares

50¢

75.9¢

$5,316.50$1,816.50 (51.9%)

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

No 50¢

7,000.0 shares

$5,316.50$1,816.50 (51.9%)

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 49.5¢

7,000.0 shares

49.5¢

24.1¢

$1,683.50-$1,780.30 (-51.4%)

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 49.5¢

7,000.0 shares

$1,683.50-$1,780.30 (-51.4%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

Yes 71.5¢

1,352.2 shares

71.5¢

68¢

$919.47-$47.47 (-4.91%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

Yes 71.5¢

1,352.2 shares

$919.47-$47.47 (-4.91%)

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 5.5¢

20,244.1 shares

5.5¢

2.9¢

$576.96-$529.71 (-47.87%)

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 5.5¢

20,244.1 shares

$576.96-$529.71 (-47.87%)

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 20¢

1,100.0 shares

20¢

22.4¢

$246.39$26.70 (12.15%)

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 20¢

1,100.0 shares

$246.39$26.70 (12.15%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Yes 62.6¢

409.5 shares

62.6¢

52¢

$212.93-$43.28 (-16.89%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Yes 62.6¢

409.5 shares

$212.93-$43.28 (-16.89%)

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?

No 90¢

100.0 shares

90¢

88¢

$88.00-$2.00 (-2.22%)

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?

No 90¢

100.0 shares

$88.00-$2.00 (-2.22%)

Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 26.6¢

264.6 shares

26.6¢

27¢

$71.45$1.16 (1.65%)

Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 26.6¢

264.6 shares

$71.45$1.16 (1.65%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 72.2¢

95.2 shares

72.2¢

69.5¢

$66.16-$2.55 (-3.71%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 72.2¢

95.2 shares

$66.16-$2.55 (-3.71%)

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?

Yes 33¢

150.0 shares

33¢

36¢

$54.00$4.50 (9.09%)

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?

Yes 33¢

150.0 shares

$54.00$4.50 (9.09%)

Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $1,800?

Yes 95.8¢

50.0 shares

95.8¢

98.1¢

$49.05$1.15 (2.4%)

Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $1,800?

Yes 95.8¢

50.0 shares

$49.05$1.15 (2.4%)

Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 17.1¢

119.3 shares

17.1¢

32.1¢

$38.30$17.92 (87.95%)

Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 17.1¢

119.3 shares

$38.30$17.92 (87.95%)

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Yes 37¢

100.0 shares

37¢

37.5¢

$37.50$0.50 (1.35%)

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Yes 37¢

100.0 shares

$37.50$0.50 (1.35%)

Will John Ternus say "Steve Jobs" during his Apple Keynote?

Yes 19.1¢

37.3 shares

19.1¢

62.5¢

$23.31$16.20 (227.92%)

Will John Ternus say "Steve Jobs" during his Apple Keynote?

Yes 19.1¢

37.3 shares

$23.31$16.20 (227.92%)

Will Elon Musk post about $LAPTOP by September 30?

No 88¢

19.1 shares

88¢

86¢

$16.44-$0.38 (-2.27%)

Will Elon Musk post about $LAPTOP by September 30?

No 88¢

19.1 shares

$16.44-$0.38 (-2.27%)

Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2028?

No 92¢

20.0 shares

92¢

78.5¢

$15.70-$2.70 (-14.67%)

Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2028?

No 92¢

20.0 shares

$15.70-$2.70 (-14.67%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 1.1¢

387.3 shares

1.1¢

3.9¢

$14.91$10.59 (245.26%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 1.1¢

387.3 shares

$14.91$10.59 (245.26%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 11.6¢

95.2 shares

11.6¢

14.5¢

$13.85$2.79 (25.25%)

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026?

Yes 11.6¢

95.2 shares

$13.85$2.79 (25.25%)

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20.5B by September 30?

Yes 23¢

47.4 shares

23¢

23.5¢

$11.14$0.24 (2.17%)

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20.5B by September 30?

Yes 23¢

47.4 shares

$11.14$0.24 (2.17%)

LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?

No 10¢

97.0 shares

10¢

9.5¢

$9.22-$0.49 (-5%)

LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?

No 10¢

97.0 shares

$9.22-$0.49 (-5%)