probability

Joined Aug 2024·2.9K views

startpolymarket. com

$115.1K

Positions Value

$22.4K

Biggest Win

3,974

Predictions

Profit/Loss

-$219.30

Past Day

Current

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 50¢

95,000.0 shares

50¢

96.1¢

$91,247.50$43,747.50 (92.1%)

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 50¢

95,000.0 shares

$91,247.50$43,747.50 (92.1%)

Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?

No 98.6¢

6,484.5 shares

98.6¢

99.5¢

$6,452.11$56.73 (0.89%)

Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?

No 98.6¢

6,484.5 shares

$6,452.11$56.73 (0.89%)

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Yes 50¢

95,000.0 shares

50¢

4¢

$3,752.50-$43,747.50 (-92.1%)

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Yes 50¢

95,000.0 shares

$3,752.50-$43,747.50 (-92.1%)

Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?

Yes 74.7¢

2,170.6 shares

74.7¢

67.7¢

$1,469.49-$151.01 (-9.32%)

Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?

Yes 74.7¢

2,170.6 shares

$1,469.49-$151.01 (-9.32%)

Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Yes 31¢

3,002.0 shares

31¢

42¢

$1,260.83$330.22 (35.48%)

Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Yes 31¢

3,002.0 shares

$1,260.83$330.22 (35.48%)

Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?

Yes 86.1¢

1,419.7 shares

86.1¢

79.4¢

$1,126.55-$95.67 (-7.83%)

Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?

Yes 86.1¢

1,419.7 shares

$1,126.55-$95.67 (-7.83%)

Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Yes 20¢

3,132.8 shares

20¢

28.5¢

$892.52$265.97 (42.45%)

Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Yes 20¢

3,132.8 shares

$892.52$265.97 (42.45%)

Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?

Yes 74.8¢

1,000.0 shares

74.8¢

78.5¢

$785.00$37.50 (5.02%)

Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?

Yes 74.8¢

1,000.0 shares

$785.00$37.50 (5.02%)

Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

No 54¢

1,132.1 shares

54¢

64.5¢

$730.19$119.09 (19.49%)

Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

No 54¢

1,132.1 shares

$730.19$119.09 (19.49%)

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

No 59.6¢

1,245.4 shares

59.6¢

54.2¢

$674.40-$67.47 (-9.09%)

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

No 59.6¢

1,245.4 shares

$674.40-$67.47 (-9.09%)

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

No 6.9¢

19,862.4 shares

6.9¢

3.2¢

$625.66-$739.85 (-54.18%)

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

No 6.9¢

19,862.4 shares

$625.66-$739.85 (-54.18%)

Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?

No 97.7¢

511.8 shares

97.7¢

98.7¢

$504.87$4.89 (0.98%)

Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?

No 97.7¢

511.8 shares

$504.87$4.89 (0.98%)

Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

No 69¢

611.7 shares

69¢

78.5¢

$480.21$57.97 (13.73%)

Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

No 69¢

611.7 shares

$480.21$57.97 (13.73%)

Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?

Yes 78.7¢

581.7 shares

78.7¢

70¢

$407.21-$50.67 (-11.07%)

Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?

Yes 78.7¢

581.7 shares

$407.21-$50.67 (-11.07%)

USMCA extended in 2026?

No 70¢

607.4 shares

70¢

62.5¢

$379.61-$45.49 (-10.7%)

USMCA extended in 2026?

No 70¢

607.4 shares

$379.61-$45.49 (-10.7%)

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 24.4¢

1,551.0 shares

24.4¢

24.5¢

$379.22$0.17 (0.04%)

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 24.4¢

1,551.0 shares

$379.22$0.17 (0.04%)

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Yes 97¢

400.0 shares

97¢

88.4¢

$353.60-$34.40 (-8.87%)

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Yes 97¢

400.0 shares

$353.60-$34.40 (-8.87%)

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?

Yes 5.9¢

12,399.1 shares

5.9¢

2.9¢

$353.37-$382.34 (-51.97%)

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?

Yes 5.9¢

12,399.1 shares

$353.37-$382.34 (-51.97%)

Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?

No 0.2¢

3,992.5 shares

0.2¢

6.2¢

$245.54$237.55 (2,975%)

Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?

No 0.2¢

3,992.5 shares

$245.54$237.55 (2,975%)

Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?

No 37.1¢

298.1 shares

37.1¢

77¢

$229.53$118.80 (107.28%)

Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?

No 37.1¢

298.1 shares

$229.53$118.80 (107.28%)