Profit/Loss
Past Day

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
88.7¢
80¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
95.7¢
96.3¢

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 30, 2026?
97.7¢
99¢

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 30, 2026?
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
92.2¢
100¢
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
96.4¢
99.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
90.2¢
95.1¢

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?
56¢
97.5¢
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
82¢
92.5¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
50.5¢
68.5¢

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
30.1¢
37.7¢

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?
88.1¢
97.1¢

Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
2.6¢
8.9¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?
83.9¢
96.8¢

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
28.1¢
100¢
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
71.2¢
100¢
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
93.5¢
99.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
